Time will tell
If Sharif is actually being singled out by the deep state then his goose is cooked. Perhaps belatedly realising that this was a self-defeating strategy, the PML-N has stopped baiting the military establishment and has instead decided to focus on attacking the JIT
Initially, there was confusion abound about the ultimate fate of the prime minister in the wake of the damning JIT report. However, now one thing is clear: he is not going to step down. Both the federal cabinet and the PML-N parliamentary party reposing confidence in him, Sharif regardless of the odds against him has decided to hold on to power.
The JIT has declared him guilty as charged of money laundering and not being able to explain the money trail from which his expensive London Mayfair apartments were purchased. None of his progenies have escaped the gauntlet.
The prime minister and his team’s defence now lies on discrediting the JIT as being biased. It is viewed more as an inquisition, rather than an independent inquiry by the ruling party.
Some eminent jurists have also questioned the antecedents of the JIT. According to Asma Jahangir, prominent human rights activist and former president of the Supreme Court Bar Association, the JIT report is aimed more at the prime minister’s ouster rather than his accountability.
Of course from the word go the accountability of an incumbent prime minister and his family was a difficult task for grade 21 government officials. That is why perhaps the special Supreme Court bench was careful in selecting members of the investigating team.
The selection of certain members of the Team, including a NAB official whose removal the apex court had previously suggested, has been questioned. Similarly, another member of the team’s wife belonging to the PTI was used as an excuse to cast aspersions on his credibility by the ruling party.
However, the mea culpa was including MI (military intelligence) and ISI (inter-services intelligence) officials in the investigating team. This being a first in Pakistan’s history was an implicit admission of incompetence, and lack of independence and credibility of the civilian investigation institutions.
Both the civilian and military leadership should not have agreed to this controversial inclusion. It somehow strengthened the perception that it was a military-led probe.
Even the Memogate commission to investigate former President Asif Zardari and Hussain Haqqani, his envoy in Washington, had no khaki as its member in spite of the fact that the whole investigation primarily centred on a security breach.
It is strange that with the sole exception of Asma Jahangir, the so-called liberal and democratic politicians in the opposition did not find any fault with this glaring anomaly. According to a report the only person addressed as ‘sir’ during the JIT proceedings was the former NAB chairman, Lt General (retd) Syed Amjad, a controversial figure.
The PML-N stalwarts have been clearly implying that the ubiquitous establishment was out to get their boss. There is no empirical evidence to suggest that the military in any manner has tried to influence the JIT’s outcome. Nonetheless with MI and ISI not only having a seat in the chimerical probe body but also playing a lead role in its proceedings (according to some reports) it was not required to show any overt interest.
If Sharif is actually being singled out by the deep state then his goose is cooked. Perhaps belatedly realising that this was a self-defeating strategy, the PML-N has stopped baiting the military establishment and has instead decided to focus on attacking the JIT.
Senior politician and somewhat of a maverick Javed Hashmi has raised some pertinent points in his diatribe against the military establishment and the judiciary while addressing a press conference the other day. One can disagree with some of the points raised by the rebel without a cause but he is spot on when he questions the selective accountability of politicians.
Both the military and the judiciary have their own internal systems of accountability. Nonetheless, as both Hashmi and Asma Jahangir point out, the judiciary has employed double standards in the past in dealing with their own.
During the tenure of former CJP Ifthikhar Choudhry, his son Arsalan walked away scot free, despite serious charges of corruption against him. The Supreme Judicial Council has ousted no superior court judge since the 70s.
The Chief Justice of the Lahore High Court, Justice Mansoor Ali Shah, has done the right and honourable thing offering him for accountability. Perhaps another judge of the same High Court named in the Panama papers should follow suit?
The previous military chief, General Raheel Sharif, ensured that former strongman General Pervez Musharraf was not tried under Article-6 of the Constitution for high treason. The khaki Sharif saw to it that his former mentor left the country unscathed by the law.
Going a little further back in history General Yayha Khan, who presided over the breakup of Pakistan, was never tried for his crimes. He peacefully died in his own house while the Justice Hamood Ur Rehman Commission Report investigating the causes of the East Pakistan debacle was kept under wraps. Perhaps the breakup of Pakistan and usurping power was considered a smaller crime than corruption of the hapless politicians?
But this logic does not mean that the politicians should be allowed to get away with murder. Sharif probably rightly claims that there is not even a hint of any corruption or financial misappropriations in his conduct as prime minister and he should know better that there are no red lines between the public and private when you are prime minister and for the third time to boot.
He should explain to the public the sources of his enormous wealth abroad and at home. Nevertheless justice should not only been done but also seen to be done. Unfortunately, in this case the conduct of the now defunct JIT looked more like a witch-hunt than an impartial probe.
Perhaps the apex court will have ample opportunity correct this perception when it starts hearing the Panamagate case in the light of the JIT report tomorrow.
On the other hand chinks in the armour of the opposition parties have appeared sooner than later. The PTI has demanded not only resignation of the prime minister and his younger brother Shahbaz Sharif but also immediate elections.
The PPP, for its part, wants Sharif to resign and appoint a successor from his own party. Since it does not suit the PPP to have immediate elections it wants them to be held after the PM L-N government completes its five-year term in 2018.
For the prime minister it is a Hobson’s choice. With virtually all his immediate family tainted in Panamagate, he will have no option but to appoint a member of the National Assembly from outside the Sharif family to be elected as prime minister by the party, in case he is disqualified.
For the prime minister it is a Hobson’s choice. With virtually all his immediate family tainted in Panamagate, he will have no option but to appoint a member of the National Assembly from outside the Sharif family to be elected as prime minister by the party, in case he is disqualified
The subsequent choice as candidate for premiership in the general elections could be Shahbaz Sharif. If Nawaz Sharif is disqualified, he cannot immediately assume the post for two reasons.
First of all he has to be an elected MNA. This requires a couple of months. Secondly, he is more useful looking after the home base till the next general elections.
Nevertheless, there is a lot of slip between the cup and the lip. The war gamers might be planning a minus-oneformula (i.e. sans Nawaz Sharif). But the situation on the ground might pan out quite differently.