Do two by-election successes promise a 2018 sweep?
PPPs political fortunes witnessed a disastrous downturn in 2013 elections, when the formerly all-Pakistan party, labelled the binding link of the federation, was roundly trounced, literally wiped out in the king-maker Punjab province, and condemned to its ‘home’ base of Sindh. The immediate reasons probably were, Asif Zardari’s five year ineffectual presidency, its attendant controversies, reconciliation policy with the hated PML-N, self-serving wheeling dealing, scandals and negative general perception of the man himself, not to talk of the complete disconnect with the grassroots jiyalas and precious little to flaunting the prosperity sphere. Since then, Zardari, instead of bowing out gracefully, allowing Bilawal and the frustrated Old Guard to shape new policies and tactics, is making all kinds of personal somersaults about his role, not allowing an effective fresh leadership to emerge.
Under these troubled circumstances, the party’s success in two by-elections on July 10 constitutes a welcome boost for the morale of the PPP rank and file, and leadership. Saeed Ghani’s largely peaceful triumph in PS-114 in Karachi, in a seat won in 2013 by PML-N and lost in July 2014 due to vote-rigging allegations of the MQM runner-up, is symbolically notable because it constitutes a PPP inroad in urban Sindh. The eventual winner(in a low turnout, usual in by-elections) resides in the constituency, which was a big plus in attracting voters, apart from robust alliances, leaving MQM-P, PML-N, PTI and JI behind, in that order, regarding number of votes gained. The constituency is a genuine mini-Pakistan, with much diversity in nationalities and minorities, including Christians and Hindus. The second victory came in far-off Gilgit-Baltistan in GBLA-Nagar 4, where the PPP captured the seat formerly held by Islami Tehreek Pakistan.
These results may be a mere flash in the pan or the beginning of an about- turn in PPP’s fate, but Bilawal’s victory statement of winning in the whole of Pakistan in 2018, based on the slim evidence of these two successes, seems far-fetched. However, they do show the PPP is down, but not out.
