PML-N and the JIT boogey-man
If the JIT’s whole investigation
has in any way been encouraged by the military establishment
then the likely outcome is also going to be
a controlled outcome of the entire event.
It only took a few weeks of grilling for the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz’s leadership to declare that the whole idea of the Joint Investigation Team’s (JIT) formation was meant to disgrace the party’s leadership. There have also been claims that the entire episode of investigation basically equates to political victimisation of PML-N’s leadership. Moreover, the Sharif family’s argument, throughout its appearances before JIT has been that the latter doesn’t have any legitimate inquiries about the former’s financial resources and the whole saga is just an effort to weaken the ruling party’s political and electoral base.
To an extent, PML-N’s claims that the inquiry is politically motivated are true. The JIT’s proceedings have been in lime light only because of its strategic importance in the country’s political environment. The timing in this regard has been fatal for the ruling party and opportune for the opposition, particularly the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). In a broader context, JIT has dampened PML-N’s electoral base in the sense that even if the party’s actual vote bank remains intact, there must be behind the door discussions among the party’s numerous lawmakers on the scenario that what if JIT dismisses the Prime Minister from its post? Given that in the last few months, PTI has been able to chip away number of PPP’s and PML-N heavy weight political figures it should be a concern for the ruling party.
It’s evident that JIT has hurt PMLN in number of ways. Now while the ruling party has taken a jab against the members of investigation team, PML-N’s frustration and limitations when it comes to threatening and bullying political opposition appear visible. So the party’s “way forward” policy now appears to be focused on the complete politicisation of JIT’s role and investigation process which in a way prepares PML-N for any sort of outcome. If the outcome is in its favor, PML-N position was always justified. However, if the outcome is against the ruling party, then it’s because of PML-N leadership’s political victimisation and due to a broader conspiracy against the Sharif family and Pakistan.
The JIT’s hearings no longer reflect scenes of an impartial inquiry. Rather, it has become a platform for different political parties to gain maximum political leverage heading up to the next general elections. For the PTI, any further lingering of the case means more attention and support for its verdict, for it reflects that there is enough evidence to prosecute or explore the case in detail. Given that the next general elections are months away, PTI is looking to gain maximum benefit out of this case which appears to the party’s solo agenda for the upcoming polls.
However, PML-N’s political fate seems in dire straits. If the court orders Prime Minister to step down, it would be the third time that the party’s head could not complete his term in office. Moreover, for the PML-N, it also means that the strong unity in terms of sustaining winnable political candidates which the party has kept under its flag might start falling away. With Nawaz Sharif’s departure as the head of the government, it’s likely that a number of opportunistic political leaders of the party might also jump ship into other parties, particularly PTI. In this context, PML-N new approach of lamenting on the biased and vengeful role of the JIT is all about preparing for the outcome of the case.
However, in this dysfunctional state of affairs, what is more alarming is this situation: what happens if PML-N or PTI refuses to accept the verdict, for it doesn’t reflect their interests? What happens if the involved stakeholders take to streets and political insecurity surges? These are the scenarios that have started to become more realistic with the way the ruling party and PTI have lately approached the case.
This is where the military’s role is going to be essential. If the JIT’s whole investigation has in any way been encouraged by the military establishment then the likely outcome is also going to be a controlled outcome of the entire event. Moreover, it also means that whatever the outcome, it will be implemented by all means and any notions of civil violence and agitation will be shutdown before they even begin. If Pakistan’s political history is any guide, it’s fair to argue that whenever investigations of such scale have taken place in the country, the verdicts have never been impartial or just; rather, they have been the combination of compromises where one political party or its leadership or other political party or its leader were presented as scapegoats in the larger scheme of things.
With the next general elections only months away, it doesn’t strike as logical that anyone, be it an institution, might be interested in sending home the country’s Prime Minister. Even if there are efforts of such sort, they make sense as long as PML-N goes into next polls with a weakened political position.