Why India should realise it has bigger fish to fry
Both India and USA are the biggest terrorists who have spoiled the international peace. India is involved in disturbing the peace of sub-continent and America has already destroyed the peace in Middle East and now trying to create trouble in Far East.
Indian leaders have long been sceptical of American military power and have often been deeply critical of the Vietnam War and other military interventions by the United States. In disparity to that, Modi encouraged a continued American military presence in Afghanistan because he is worried that Pakistan will have unchallenged influence there once the Americans leave.
Almost exactly 31 years ago, Rajiv Gandhi, the then India’s prime minister, also spoke of Afghanistan in an address to Congress. But he did it in the context of justifying the Soviet military presence there.
The different references to Afghanistan are a measure of just how much relations between the world’s so called largest democracies have changed in three decades.
Why did India rush over to the USA?
Pakistan and China have achieved military interoperability. Having a common enemy has reinforced this compatibility. The armies of the two countries are capable to execute joint missions against a common target. Together, the two allies create a formidable joint force. With unstinting cooperation from China, Pakistan has enviable nuclear technology, missile delivery systems, the logistic supply chain of equipment and spares, and new-age technologies such as cyber and drone warfare.
Pakistan and China are locked in their ‘daily life’. China has already heavily invested in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. Thousands of Chinese workers are on ground in Pakistan working on the CPEC and OBOR initiative. Obviously, China will have ample reason to get involved. China will not allow its multi-billion dollar project to be disrupted.
Kashmir could be a triggering point for India to move for purchase of armaments from Washington, maybe anticipating the disintegration of India starting from Kashmir, but there could be more to it, Khalistan would be the next and then in series all others, Tamil-Nado, Assam, Sikkim, Lower Caste Hindus and may also be another independent Muslim state. This fear, and to divert these struggles, India can lead to a war with its atomic neighbour Pakistan. In that case, an attack would be considered on China. History reveals, China always stands beside Pakistan in and every circumstances, which is India afraid of. BUT, opening any front with Pakistan and China, will enhance the disintegration process of India, Modi must remember these words.
On the other side; by not joining the OBOR initiative, India is slowly realising the pain of isolation and they foresee the distress it could bring to India once the initiative evolves fully. Last month 29 world leaders and representatives from countries across the continent joined the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. Billions are being spent on this initiative and India’s regional allies are gradually shifting allegiances. Maldives joined OBOR in 2014, and Bangladesh signed up in 2016. Sri Lanka became a part of it in 2010.Pakistan too had become a part of it as a result of the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Nepal signed up in May this year. Myanmar is slowly moving back towards the Chinese sphere of influence. All this has made New Delhi nervous. India is resorting to grand rhetoric in an effort to project itself as the regional powerhouse and keep control over its perceived ‘domain’. India seems desperate to disrupt the Chinese initiative.
In his book “The Dragon on our Doorsteps”, Praveen Sahwney says that while India was busy developing its military arsenal, Pakistan and China developed their war waging capabilities, which is a synthesis of much strength other than just military force. Another area of consternation for India is that its traditional ally Russia has in recent times drawn closer to both specially China. The US needs Pakistan to achieve closure in Afghanistan and has been supporting Pakistan financially and militarily. Pakistan is no longer as dependent on the US as before. China has filled the gap. China’s “One Belt One Road” is a master move. Not only is the initiative a win-win for both China and Pakistan, but India may find themselves losing out by adamantly shunning the project. If indeed India does decide on war with Pakistan, the latter can depend on China for their logistics supply chain as well as weaken the Indian Armed Forces resources and focus by mobilising PLA divisions along the border with India. This would divert a substantial part of the Indian military reserves to the Eastern front. At this rather nebulous juncture of global politics, nations such as the US, UK, Russia and France, would think more than twice before intervening in a possible Indo-Pak conflict. While India’s warmongers may be baying for blood, the more cool-headed pragmatists realise that caution is the call of the day. In waging a war against arch enemy Pakistan, they simply cannot afford to provoke Pakistan’s tried and test ally China. India may find it more prudent to let the sleeping dragon lie.
On the other hand, India’s former National Security Adviser M.K. Narayana, who served for six long years till 2011, in a column in the Hindu, warned that India has effectively lost control of the situation in J&K and argued that to avert a disaster, in the form of an “intifada,” New Delhi should abandon its “muscular policy”. Narayanan, who for years helped oversee the repression in Kashmir, makes a number of damning admissions. These include that there’s no Pakistani interference and that the main cause of the current wave of popular protest in J&K is actually insurgent and separatist political groups have total control over it.
While joining hand with Washington or asking Washington to join hands with India, Modi must remember, Washington is the most untrustworthy and unreliable partner, it’s the history. Instead of creating more troubles in the area, Indian leadership should concentrate to solve their internal problems, and further, to avoid disintegration, India should handover Kashmir to Kashmiris and let them decide their own fate. Otherwise, India will have to face dreadful consequences and complete disintegration.
As far Pakistan is concerned; Modi should remember, Pakistan is a strong country with one of the best armies of the world equipped with latest armaments and technology, has enviable nuclear technology, missile delivery systems, the logistic supply chain of equipment and spares, and new-age technologies such as cyber and drone warfare.
With China beside, both become unbeatably strong, who can jointly face any challenge, any confrontation, and any dispute and have the capability and ability to beat it up.
But when all is done and said, it is still true that there is nothing war has ever achieved that we could not better achieve without it.
