In the end it had to be the Afghan kerfuffle that decided Trump’s Pakistan policy, or influence it to a large degree, quite in keeping with Obama’s AfPak legacy. And even if half of what the press says – citing official American sources on condition of anonymity, of course – Pakistan has much to worry about in the medium term. More drone strikes and a downgrade from major non-nato ally are bad enough. But the cut in aid, if true, will hurt much more. Remember, this is a country that borrows, from international and local markets, even for its day-to-day functioning. That explains, in part, why holding back the Coalition Support Fund (CSF) not too long ago reverberated all the way to the federal budget.
Trump seems serious about finally wrapping up the war in Afghanistan. From the looks of it, he’s betting on a troop surge to clean up the countryside and his usual no-nonsense approach to stem the alleged infiltration that has fed this insurgency for a decade and a half. That, of course, brings Pakistan into the equation. If, again, the reports are true, it’s unlikely he’s buying the argument we fed Obama and Bush; that we are the victim here. To keep Trump from putting his muscle where his mouth is, Pakistan might really have to “do more” this time.
Yet the tea leaves tell more. Washington wants to end the Afghan war more than just about anything. And the spotlight on Pakistan also shows its centrality, especially if the war is to end without too many more lives lost needlessly. Trump’s advisors would also have told him that leaning too hard on Pakistan might just cause it to abandon the alliance, especially if the US breaks the ‘major ally’ bond first. With the official policy still to be presented, though, all this amounts to mere speculation. But Pakistan had best be prepared for a hard line.