Why force Afghanistan to try desperate remedies?
The Afghan-India air corridor will have political and economic implications for Pakistan. Afghanistan was a key exporting destination for Pakistani goods for two decades. However, Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan have come down from USD 2.6 billion in 2011 to USD 1.2 billion in 2016. One of the major reasons is the heightened security protocols on Pakistan side including sudden and prolonged border closures and the resultant wastage of perishable goods in transit worth millions of dollars on both sides. Meanwhile the flow of Afghan Transit Trade has also come down from 75,000 containers in 2010 to a little under 49,000 containers in 2016. Iran is emerging as an important trade partner of Afghanistan while India has opened a direct Afghanistan-India air corridor for trade. In case the present trend continues Iran and India would emerge as major trade partners of Afghanistan leaving close door neighbour Pakistan behind.
Trade between two countries improves mutual relations and creates linkages between their business communities. Deepening trade relations have led China and India to put their once bitter border disputes on the back burner. Among the key external risks faced by Pakistan economy, says IMF, is lower trading partner growth. In the case of Afghanistan we are losing a traditional trading partner to India and Iran. This is not only bad for economy but also for bilateral relations.
Pakistan needs to revise its Afghan policy which has pushed Kabul into the arms of those who are opposed to us. After the ghost of Cold War was interred Pakistan should have reviewed its policies with neighbouring countries particularly Afghanistan. It frustrates some when Kabul demands the right for two way trade with India through Pakistan. It is argued that this would provide India access to Central Asia. India is any case going to have access to Central Asia through Iran if not through Pakistan. As things stand we are in a position to bargain with India while in the process improve relations with Afghanistan. There is a need to debate the pros and cons of the current policy towards Afghanistan and India.
