Are cities driving higher emissions in Pakistan?
When Andrew Steer from the World Resources Institute declared that ‘the battle for climate change will be won or lost in the cities of the world’ at a room full of Mayors in the C40 summit in 2060, he wasn’t necessarily talking about ‘insignificant’ little cities in Pakistan like Larkana, Nowshera, and Skardu. In fact, the only city in Pakistan to make it to the group of 90 cities that will reduce emissions in line with the Paris agreement, is Karachi.
And although Karachi is significant in the urbanisation dialogue, as the 7th largest megacity in the world, its population grown 80.5% between 1993 and 2003, and other cities are increasingly significant. With an annual urbanisation rate of 3%, more than half of Pakistan’s population by 2025 will be living in cities, according to the UN. In 2016, it was estimated that 40% of Pakistanis were already living in cities, both large and small. Vision 2025, Pakistan’s development roadmap and the ‘Future Cities’ project (as a part of the Chinese investment in Pakistan) plan to speed up the urbanisation rate even further.
But where does climate change come into the mix? According to UNHABITAT, 60% of the world’s carbon emissions come from cities, mainly from transport, industry, biomass use, and energy generation. In fact, cities consume a whopping 78% of total energy produced globally.
Cities also generally mean increased vulnerability- especially in population dense areas. People live close together, crowded, and sometimes in housing that cannot provide adequate protection from extreme events.
In the case of Pakistan, a country whose carbon emissions increased by 123% in the past 2 decades, the population growth and high rural to urban migration rates are responsible for the growing urbanisation. There are many factors driving the migration to urban centres, but the most ironic of which is people migrating to urban centres to escape from the impacts of climate change. Many of those living in rural areas rely on climate vulnerable sectors like farming and fishing, which means livelihoods are increasingly at risk due to the impacts of climate change, especially the scarcity of water resources. To switch livelihoods to something more secure, as well as to have access to supposedly better services such as education, healthcare etc., people are migrating from Pakistan’s rural areas to the cities, where they feel they will have a better chance at a better life.
But here’s where things get shaky. Although initiatives like the Supporting Pakistan’s Future Cities by CPEC, and government policies and promises give hope that urban centres may be able to provide a better standard of living, the truth is at this stage that Pakistan’s cities are overcrowded and not positioned at the moment to take on the migrants. The Urban Sprawl, notable in cities like Lahore in particular, has not only increased the rich/poor divide within the cities, but also sees migrants living in poor conditions, cut off from many of the facilities they came to the city to avail.
The focus therefore should not be on speeding up the process of urbanisation, although it is inevitable as Pakistan’s agriculture and fishing sectors continue to fall prey to the impacts of climate change. Initiatives to strengthen the resilience of climate vulnerable sectors such as these against the impacts of climate change through adaptation practices is the key, as well as providing options for diversified livelihoods, education and access to healthcare in the rural areas. In the meantime, cities can better prepare to host the migrants- and be better positioned to provide them with the facilities they need and jobs they require.
What is even more important is for city administrations to pre empt the rise in carbon emissions that will arise from this increase in urbanisation, and push policies and investments to help curb this.