What Nawaz Sharif should expect from his meeting with Donald Trump?

Is this a change of policy or mere optics?

“Pakistan and the United States’ interests in Afghanistan have remained on collision course and any policies which were formulated by Washington have not produced any results at all. Trump’s team would be interested in finding a common ground with Pakistan against the insurgent groups that it considers a threat to its interests in the country.”

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is in Saudi Arabia to attend an Islamic Conference which is being attended by the heads of dozens of Muslim countries. Prime Minister Sharif during his stay in Riyadh is also expected to meet the president of the United States of America, Donald Trump, who is also participating in the conference.

While the conference is an effort on Saudi Arabia’s part to unite the Muslim world against the rising threat of Islamic extremism, Prime Minister Sharif’s participation is likely to be seen in the context of his meeting with President Trump.

Afghanistan is likely to be at the top of Trump’s meeting agenda with Prime Minster Sharif. The worsening security situation in Afghanistan and Washington’s recent commitment in terms of not only raising the number of troops in the country but also in the area of economic assistance, highlights that the US is not likely to scale down its presence in Kabul. Therefore, this situation requires Pakistan’s cooperation which doesn’t only have deep vested interests in the country but also considers itself a major stakeholder in any intervention in Afghanistan.

According to Dr Imran Iqbal, who is an Assistant professor at the School of Integrated Social Science at the University of Lahore, Trump is not likely to Push Sharif into a corner with threats related to political or economic isolation; rather he should be expected to persuade Sharif into understanding the dire security situation in Kabul which requires Pakistan’s unparalleled commitment.

“Trump, I believe will be explaining his recent policy measures in Afghanistan, which he is likely to fold in the area of stabilising the country through unwavering economic and security support. I think Trump’s foreign policy team would also like to persuade Sharif on formulating a common front against the rising threat of the Islamic State, not only in Afghanistan but also in the region at large,” says Iqbal.

Abdul Basit, a research fellow at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR) of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore, believes that while “Afghanistan is going to be one of the top talking points during the proposed meeting between Prime Minister Sharif and Trump, the question of Pakistan’s ‘selective counter terrorism’policy approach when it comes to dealing with different militant groups, is an area where the latter would like to see any progress from Pakistan.” Basit says that Washington is “interested in seeing a uniform approach from Pakistan when it comes to dealing with different militant groups.”

In this context, Iqbal says, Trump is going to ask for Pakistan’s help and cooperation: “We have seen previously, Pakistan and the United States’ interests in Afghanistan have mainly remained on collision course and any policies which were formulated by Washington using stick and carrot approach towards Pakistan, have not produced any results at all. Therefore, Trump’s team would be interested in finding common ground with Pakistan against the insurgent groups that it considers a threat to its interests in the country.”

The recent wave of hostility with India is also likely to come under discussion. According to Basit, “Washington does not want to see violence and hostility between India and Pakistan which indirectly trickle downs to Afghanistan.” Rather, as Basit argues “Trump may sway Sharif towards building bridges with India if not in the context of long run than at least in the short run.”

However, it’s unlikely that any promises made by Prime Minister Sharif, will actually reflect in the form of any policy change, for as Iqbal warns that Trump’s conciliatory approach towards Sharif is not likely to garner any measurable results. “Both leaders are facing acute domestic pressure on political fronts and any meeting between Trump and Sharif is going to terminate with mere optics rather than any conclusive policy changes, for neither has political will or vision to bring about any policy change.”

Iqbal adds that “while Trump’s handicaps are of a different nature, Sharif has no control over the country’s foreign policy matters, particularly vis-à-vis Afghanistan and India. Even if Sharif agreed to make amends into Pakistan’s current policy regarding Afghanistan, he is simply unable to do so, for Trump and his team are well aware where the power lies in Pakistan and that is with the military establishment.”

That said, any meeting between Prime Minister Sharif and President Donald Trump is going to be a venue where Pakistan can present its own apprehensions against some of the challenges that sit beyond its borders. The question of India’s intervention in Pakistan’s domestic affairs and the issue of Kashmir are also likely to fall on the agenda of Prime Minister Sharif.

From Pakistan’s context, the success of the meeting between Sharif and Trump should be measured by any eventual press conference or statements that on the surface level support Pakistan’s policy outlook rather than its ridicule.