Indian isolation, economic diplomacy and a new world order in the making
The One Belt One Road summit – which drew one hundred and thirty delegations and the heads of twenty-nine states to Beijing – ended on a very positive note, with the resolve to orchestrate unity among the countries of the world for achieving the cherished goals of peace, prosperity and security. The first ever summit, convened after the launch of the OBOR initiative in 2013, was thus a tremendous success. President of China Xi Jinping forcefully made a case for an internationalist agenda of free trade which – in his view – was the recipe for a win-win situation for all participants. The argument was readily accepted by the heads of states and delegations attending the summit who expressed their faith in the potential of the OBOR initiative in promoting trade and investment and ultimately contributing to peace through connectivity and economic interdependence. The US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership initiative having been withdrawn by the Trump administration, the OBOR summit in Beijing actually crowned China as the world leader in an effort to change the economic profile of the entire world. That could well be the start of the new world order in the making.
The Prime Minister of Pakistan, in his address at the OBOR summit and the round-table conference of the attending leaders, invariably expressed Pakistan’s unwavering support for both the OBOR and the CPEC, saying Pakistan strongly favoured cooperation and synergetic partnerships across regions for socio-economic development and human prosperity. He rightly observed that OBOR had the potential to find answers to the concerns of the world regarding burgeoning terrorism, refugee movements, mass migration, food security and water shortages. He emphasised the point that OBOR needed to be appreciated in its proper perspective of inter-connected development. He was also right when he observed that any progress would be reduced to mere dreams if border tensions were not brought down – in what was an obvious reference to the situation on our western and eastern borders.
Regrettable, was India’s choice to stay away from the OBOR summit. It has repeated the offers of both China and Pakistan to join CPEC. In fact it is trying to sabotage the CPEC initiative. By adopting a hostile stance on the CPEC, India might as well have scripted its own economic isolation in the region since China, Russia, Iran, Turkey and the Central Asian nations are all staunch supporter of the Chinese initiative and have vowed to be part of it.
Before the commencement of the OBOR summit, when the Prime Minister met the Chinese President and other world leaders, Pakistan and China signed formal agreements/MOUs regarding building of Gawdar airport, the dry port at Havelian, East Bay Express way in Gawadar and the up-gradation of Railway track from Peshawar to Karachi, raising the total investment under CPEC to US$ 54 billion. The Prime Minister’s decision to take all the Chief Ministers with him, was in my opinion a wise one because it gives the impression of national ownership of CPEC to the Chinese leadership, which has been more than keen for the implementation of this mega-initiative within the stipulated time-frame. It may be mentioned that CPEC has a time line of 2030 to complete the infrastructure projects, means of communication and the power producing units which would be required to promote and sustain the development process unleashed by the investments made under CPEC and its multiplier effect.
Their keenness may take many by surprise, if the context of the situation is unclear.
One must understand that the CPEC is actually a pivot of the OBOR concept linking Kashghar with Gawadar through a network of roads and rail. China’s access to Gawadar would provide her easy approach to the Persian Gulf, one of the most important oil trade corridors in the world. China being the largest global oil importer would gain a lot from operational Gawadar port by cutting down thousands of miles in transportation and millions of dollars in costs. It would also be the safest outlet for China which would permanently put at rest the Chinese fears of Washington cutting energy supply through various sea routes that it oversaw, or virtually controlled.
This however does not imply that China would be the sole beneficiary of Gawadar and the overall framework of CPEC. The infrastructure project and the installation of the new power projects would not only help Pakistan to overcome the debilitating energy crisis gripping the country but would also spur tremendous economic activity in the country, besides making it a hub of economic activity for the entire region. Russia and Central Asian states have already indicated their interest in using the Gawadar port.
Participation of India in the CPEC as desired by both China and Pakistan would have strengthened and enhanced the scope of this mega-economic initiative to the benefit of the entire region including India, but unfortunately it sees OBOR and CPEC as Chinese attempt to enhance its influence in the region and beyond, instead of looking at it from the perspective of its economic potential. It also opposes the participation of Pakistan in CPEC on the plea that the corridor passed through disputed territory.
It is true that the prospects of success of CPEC are inextricably tied to regional stability and cooperation. Peace in fact is a pre-requisite for socio-economic development. Pakistan and China are both concerned about the phenomenon of terrorism and making concerted efforts at the bilateral and multilateral level to tackle the scourge and also to bring peace to Afghanistan. Pakistan is also making strenuous efforts under its policy of ‘peaceful neighbourhood’ to recalibrate its relations with India and reduce tensions along the borders. Similar efforts are also underway to remove an ambience of mistrust between Afghanistan and Pakistan and building a cooperative mechanism to control terrorism and nudging the process of reconciliation within Afghanistan. The statement by Prime Minister at the OBOR summit that the progress would be reduced to dream if the tensions along the borders were not reduced, needs to be appreciated in this context. But as they say it requires two to tango. Hopefully both India and Afghanistan would realise the futility of continued hostility and respond positively to peace overtures by Pakistan.
Nevertheless the CPEC notwithstanding the confronting challenges and complications represents a concrete economic vision for the long run. Given the will by China and Pakistan to ensure successful implementation of CPEC, it can be safely inferred that the initiative was a historic opportunity for the participating nations to change their economic profiles, more so for Pakistan which due its geographical location was poised to be the biggest beneficiary of it. The decision of the present government to be part of the visionary economic movement by China, in itself reflects their ability to look into the future. The commitment and the dedication with which the government and the military establishment are trying to ensure the completion of projects under CPEC, leaves no doubt about the fact that its completion would surely usher in an era of economic prosperity in the country.
