Looking at the social risks

Of Ehsanullah Ehsan’s confession & Afghanistan

I would like to congratulate Pakistan army, elected parliament and whole nation for demonstrating an unbending resolve to deal with the issue of extremism, fundamentalism, separatism, and militancy in the country. This resolve has forced militant separatist and terrorists to rethink their affiliations and are now appealing to be forgiven for their past crimes. Although this is a welcome development but there are inherent social risks in it that have to be dealt with carefully.

The first risk is that there are thousands of families, both civil and military, whose loved ones were savagely and brutally killed by these criminals. No one can forget the scenes when these terrorists played football with the severed heads of our brave soldiers or killed our innocent children in APS school and universities. Those that lost loved ones and the nation at large seek justice for these crimes and any relaxation would be conceived as a grave injustice. This could rise to another kind of fanaticism and radicalism among the loved ones of those that were a victim of terrorism.

Second, there is already a narrative promoted in the international media that TTP was good Taliban before they became bad by getting out of the control. Now they are once again turned into good Taliban to be saved for use later. I personally believe there is no truth in it but it is none the less there and has to be dealt with. One way to deal with it is to give access to selective international media that is unbiased in their reporting.

The third risk is that there is a perception that there is selective justice in the country. Plea bargains offered to these militants should not be perceived as similar to NAB plea bargains offered to white collar criminals engaged in corruption.

These are a serious risk and Pakistan should seek help from other countries that faced a similar situation. There are two countries that may provide good advice that is Sri Lanka and Algeria. But I would not prefer Sri Lanka because they practically killed all Tamil militants and then tried to rehabilitate the families left behind by them. Algeria may be a better option for us. They dealt with homegrown FIS militancy in the 1990s. These militants were driven by religious ideology and killed over 250,000 civilians and law enforcement. The government was finally able to provide them an amnesty deal that included punishment, incentive, and rehabilitation. The government of Pakistan should reach out to Algerian government and request to share their experience and send some experts that dealt with that crisis.

The confession of Ehsanullah Ehsan highlighted one more important factor that TTP militants have got sanctuaries and support in Afghanistan. This means that solving the Afghan crisis is very critical for Pakistan to break the back of terrorists. Our approach to Afghan issue is mistaken as we consider it a bilateral rather than a regional issue. Since its inception, I have never accepted our policy of “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned” (there are many pieces available on Pakistan Today website for reference). In this policy which Afghans are we referring to? Those that are installed, financed and protected by a foreign power or those Afghan that demand that all foreign forces should leave their country. In other words, sovereignty has not returned to Afghanistan since the American-led NATO invasion. There is a puppet government that has no legitimacy among Afghan people and does not even have writ over the whole country. According to latest estimates, only 53% of the country is controlled by Kabul regime while 47% of the country is under the control of Afghan Taliban. The dropping of Mother of All Bombs (MOAB) only shifted the war from South to North but remained as brutal as ever as is evident from the recent attack on a military base. The other change is that this time instead of pointing fingers at Pakistan, American establishment and commanders are pointing fingers at Russia.

Pointing fingers will further aggravate the situation. To find a solution to the Afghan question, the first step should be to develop an international platform comprising of USA, Russia, Pakistan, China, Iran and Afghanistan (both puppet and Taliban). India can’t be part of this platform as PM Modi and senior members of his cabinet have made repeated pronouncements that they will use all means to destabilise Pakistan. Confessions of Kulbhushan Jadhav and Ehsanullah Ehsan confirmed that it was not a mere rhetoric. They can only be accepted as part of the platform if they sign a non-interference from Afghanistan agreement which should be guaranteed by USA, Russia, and China.

As far as a political solution is concerned I am against expansion and extended stay of American forces in Afghanistan as it will not break the stalemate rather prolong the delay to find an inevitable political solution that is needed to return sovereignty to Afghans. To find a political solution we have to keep in mind that Afghanistan never had a central authority that extended to the whole country. It is also a fact that Afghanistan is a diverse country with many ethnicities. This means we have to divide the political transition into two stages. First stage comprising of creating a constitution drafting council comprising of representatives from Kabul regime and Afghan Taliban. In this phase, safe zones should be created in North, South, and East of Afghanistan so that refugees can return to their homeland. Russia, Pakistan, and Iran should guarantee security in these safe zones respectively. The return of refugees is important to kick-start an economy that is non-existent in the country. International development institutions including WB, ADB, and AIIB should provide funds to introduce employment generation industries. In the second stage if everyone agrees a confederation of various ethnic regions is created that is government by the center in Kabul. The central and federating units are then asked to hold elections under the supervision of international observers and security forces.

International powers have to realise that rise of extremism and growing fears in their societies is the result of their great game played in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia. It is about time these games should end so that human sufferings is allowed to heal.