Revenge of the court

How it unfolds

With the assumption of a discredited prime minister through the JIT, the chances of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz taking any hits in terms of electoral loss appear inconceivable

The verdict on Panama Papers scandal should hardly be seen as a surprise. The findings in essence depict what one should expect from Pakistan’s top court in the realm of ‘fair’ and ‘impartial’ given the nastiness of Pakistan’s institutions independence, their politicisation and clashes. Moreover, the court’s final decision appears as an expression of the institution’s own inability to probe the scandal in detail which perhaps has averted an ultimate result that may have disqualified the country’s prime minister. In the judgment, the court rightly expresses its inability by arguing that various investigative organisations including the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) have hindered the former’s efforts by not cooperating with the probe.

So as far as the court’s credibility is concerned, there are no questions: if one looks at the more than 500 long pages of verdict it becomes clear that the language implies that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif should be disqualified. While the two judges which were part of the SC panel probing the scandal, in a scathing note, said that the PM should be disqualified immediately, the other three, with a relative moderate assessment, have agreed with the former by arguing that Sharif has remained unable to prove that the money trail which is under probe, came from legitimate sources. Hence, for the court, while it has equaled to a crime in appearance, it is enough for a unanimous decision that a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) should be formed to further probe the evidence which the court has remained unable to do so.

The question that deals with “who is the culprit?” in the judgment but “cannot be declared” for the evidence is not contemptuous enough, has actually led to the SC towards pairing all major national institutions for probing the scandal further. The angle that have remained missing from the last week’s commentaries deciphering SC’s judgment, deals with the court’s own revenge against all major national institutions. Here is how the revenge has been formulated: Since the court could not disqualify or print a verdict that may be, in anyway, different than the one which is now, is because of the non-cooperation of all major bureaucratic and investigative stakeholders. Had the court given a clean chit to Prime Minister Sharif, it would have invited the wrath of other political parties, which would have undermined SC’s own standing. On the other hand, had the court disqualified the Prime Minister Sharif, it would have overstepped its bounds and had assumed inappropriate political power.

So what would the best decision? Let all bureaucratic, investigative and security apparatuses decide the ultimate fate of the prime minister with the top court looking over. By putting the NAB, FIA and the State Bank of Pakistan under the radar, the court has actually vindicated itself: if the prime minister is declared guilty through the JIT, all probing institution’s “fair roles” would be justified, and if it’s the other way around, about which the court has lamented in its judgment, all probing institutions would appear as the ones whose role should be questioned rather than the SC.

With all eyes are on the JIT, and with the PTI’s media and street pressure, it’s going to be very tough to manipulate the process. However, this optimism comes in the context of how previous JIT’s have remained unable to reach their conclusions. Arguably, the nature of the current case is entirely different than any other previous case. With the election year fast approaching, all major and small political parties are likely to join hands, if not directly than by building pressure on the government in their respective capacities, to ensure that the party in power is weakened by the time elections are held. Arguably, all opposition political parties share a common interest in the form of a weakened Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, for only then their chances of making any mark in the next general elections appear visible.

With the assumption of a discredited prime minister through the JIT, the chances of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz taking any hits in terms of electoral loss appear inconceivable. If Pakistan’s election history is any lesson, there is one thing which remains crystal clear: when it comes to electoral successes or losses, corruption has hardly remained a decisive element; rather it’s the patronage, lobbying on different cast, ethnic and political levels that actually acts as a vital factor. It has already been speculated that Prime Minister Sharif is not going to position himself for the seat where he sits now if his party wins the next general elections; rather the party has been grooming and preparing Sharif’s daughter, Maryam Nawaz, for the position.

For PML-N, what is at stake is the legacy and credibility of the party’s chief and founder, perhaps if not as a politician than as a prime minister, who may or not may manage to complete five years in office even after becoming the head of the government for three times.

Certainly, the vengeance underneath the judgment of the SC is yet to unfold.