Just-in-time; JIT
With the general elections right round the corner due to be held in 2018, the apex court’s decision to form a JIT to investigate, and drill down the details on the case appears to be a just-in-time step which may set the stage, and prove to be deciding factor in the upcoming general elections
With the announcement of Panama case verdict by the Supreme Court of Pakistan, celebrations broke out among both, the ruling party i.e. PML-N as well as the opposition, whereas the nation, more or less numb to the decision, stands clueless of whether to put their faith in the proceedings to follow. The representatives from both the government and opposition parties distributed sweets in response to the decision claiming it being in their favour with the court ruling out the opposing stand point.
In a split decision, two out of five judges declared the Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif as eligible for disqualification under the articles 62 and 63 of the constitution, on grounds of grave contradictions in his statements, and for providing misleading information on the floor of the sacred house i.e. the parliament. The remaining three judges, on the other hand, called for the formation of Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to further probe in to the matter before declaring the disqualification of the PM.
With the general elections right round the corner due to be held in 2018, the apex court’s decision to form a JIT to investigate, and drill down the details on the case appears to be a just-in-time step which may set the stage, and prove to be deciding factor in the upcoming general elections.
The most prominent of all opposition figures, and the chairman Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) Imran Khan, has however demanded the abdication of the PM until the JIT concludes the investigation on the matter as a fair and independent inquiry is not possible with Nawaz holding on to the office. The PTI chief’s demand was soon after backed by the former president of pakistan, and the co-chairman of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Asif Ali Zardari, demanding the PM to step down since all credibility and honor that is expected of a prime minister had been lost. Other opposition leaders including PML (Awami) leader Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed, and the Ameer Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) Siraj ul Haq also joined the camp and demanded the same of PM.
The PML-N, on the other side, remains confidently adamant that the premier has been cleared by the SC of the allegations made, and so will the JIT second.
The matter, now, rests with the JIT on how assertively it pursues the investigation by ensuring its neutrality and impartiality at the same time. In Pakistan, however, unfortunately the JIT’s of the past have succumbed to political influence, and therefore have lost the public’s faith and that of the opposition as well.
Marching up to the elections 2018
Where all political parties were gearing up for the upcoming general elections in 2018, now with the Panama case verdict given there appears to be a focus-shift from elections to the investigation by JIT as it could very well set the stage for many in the elections 2018.
The PML-N although remained dominant, and was going strong prior to the Panama controversy at present seems to be politically on a back foot with respect to its public image now with the prime minister, and the man running the show for PML-N Mian Nawaz Sharif is under investigation.
Given a situation that 67 year old PM Nawaz Sharif stands disqualified at the conclusion of JIT’s investigation, the PML-N will find itself in a weakened position going in to the elections, not only because of the supreme leader’s embarrassing disqualification but also the lack of space for a possible 2nd in command to take over the election campaign under such circumstances, adding strength to the opposition parties vote bank.
A credible heir
Political parties in Pakistan, if not all then at least a good majority of them, have remained what we call a one man show, rather than being politically structured institutions nurturing a new breed of political leadership in the country.
Keeping in view the ironic political history of Pakistan, political figures despite being convicted in courts of law are able to raise themselves from the dead, and regain their once compromised position
The Bhuttos, the Sharifs, the YarWalis, the Chaudhrys, and the list goes on, have been the dominating titles in Pakistani politics, rather than PPP, PML-N, ANP, PML (Q) etc. The PTI, considered to be an aberration, in reality also falls under the same category as it is more IK that echoes the political arena.
This has been a primary reason why the minus one formula has been opposed by majority parties. Ironically, figures in our part of the world are stronger than the institutions they belong to.
In case of Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification, Maryam Nawaz has been much talked of as being the possible heir to the former. Does she, however, stand credible? Since she has remained the central figure accused in the entire Panama papers episode.
PML-N, in a possible disqualification of the PM, would require not just an heir, but that too a credible one to restore the party’s tarnished image, and to win back the possibly lost public image.
Nawaz and the future…
Trying to see through the crystal ball in an attempt to know the possible future, the question finally arises, is there a minus N formula for PML-N? Even if with the JIT investigation, the PM stands disqualified, will that mean a subtraction of Nawaz Sharif from the political scenario of PML-N?
The aforementioned, despite all odds, stands highly unlikely, and it can be predicted that Nawaz Sharif will continue to influence the politics in Pakistan informally even if he is not heading the government or the opposition formally, courtesy the larger than life figures as compared to institutions.
Keeping in view the ironic political history of Pakistan, political figures despite being convicted in courts of law are able to raise themselves from the dead, and regain their once compromised position.
With Nawaz absolutely removed from the picture, PML-N’s political future will be subject to uncertainty, and dubiousness, and will remain a faceless entity.
For PML-N, there seems to be no minus N formula.
