NAP has been a failure
This is a propaganda war, the better way was just to release the news that he has surrendered or been arrested and this is a big victory for war against terrorism and let the courts decide
The surrender of Ehsanullah Ehsan and his subsequent appearances on media has stirred quite a controversy in recent days with good folks of Pakistan showing mixed reaction to a sudden ‘change of heart’ of a former hardcore, jet-black terrorist who had the dubious distinction of being a mouthpiece of infamous, banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan.DNA sat with Muhammad Amir Rana, a notable security expert, to talk out various dimensions related to capture of Ehsanullah Ehsan.
Muhammad Amir Rana is a security and political analyst and the director of Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS). He has worked extensively on issues related to counter-terrorism, counter-extremism, and internal and regional security and politics. He was a founder member of PIPS when it was launched in January 2006 and had previously worked as a journalist with various Urdu and English daily newspapers from 1996 until 2004. He has given lectures at several universities and security institutes in Pakistan and abroad.
Question: What are your views about the surrender of Ehsanullah Ehsan? Do you think this sets a precedent that other Taliban commanders will be eager to follow?
MAR: According to his claim there are many militant leaders who want to give up their arms, but we don’t know whether it is true or not. As far as the ground situation is concerned even he has admitted that he was getting support from different intelligence agencies, although we can debate the veracity of his claim. But in my view this is an isolated incident. This is not going to be a trigger or a big change. The reason is there are political arguments. The religious argument is that they have a distinct belief and it is still valid. Human resources are available, they still have the logistical supply lines intact. So why will they change or suddenly transform over night? We have to look at the situation carefully.
I think this kind of exposure goes in the favour of the militants. When Ehsanullah Ehsanullah is coming on TV screens and confessing and repeating the same allegations, it creates doubts in the minds of the people and we know they still have a support base in the country. And at this time it creates a reaction. It can encourage those who wish to join such organisations. See, this is a propaganda war, the better way was just to release the news that he has surrendered or been arrested and this is a big victory for war against terrorism and let the courts decide.
The treatment meted out to such militants creates an impression about how state wants to tackle such segments. Whether the state is going to give them a way out or to take them to task.
Q: TTP’s links to NDS and RAW have been well documented in the Pakistani press, at least. Do you think Ehsanullah’s admission make Pakistan’s case any stronger internationally?
MAR: This is only one statement, not a confessional statement in any court of law which can be presented as evidence on any international forum. There is a lot doing the rounds about NDS and RAW links and many of these links may be true but I don’t think we can pursue our case on an international forum. So this should be handled more carefully, more strategically. I think since they’ve caught a big fish they wanted to present it to the international community. And that’s okay. See we got this one guy who has admitted all the allegations. International media is already raising such concerns about these things, Pakistan won’t be in a better position to utilise this case. At present there is this impression that he has got amnesty from the state.
Q: This man has openly taken credit for some of the worst acts of terrorism in Pakistan. People are asking for an open trial and appropriate punishment. Do you think a proper trial might follow soon for Ehsanullah?
MAR: Open trials are quite effective as then people get to know from where the militants and terrorists are getting funding, logistical supportand what kind of narrative or followers they have and how much they are dependent or independent in their working. So this is important, especially in the Pakistani context as we get confused again and again about the intention of the militants and the radicals. If there will be an open trial the whole picture will become clear regarding their political motives, ideological bent, their anti-state activities, external support, etc.
So, yes, an open trial would help a great deal.
Q: Looking at the bigger picture, terrorism incidents has taken a dip over the past two years. How do you gauge the threat from ISIS as the terrorists have taken a beating in Iraq and Syria? Do you believe fleeing terrorists are regrouping in Afghanistan?
MAR: Not all groups of ISIS are regrouping in Afghanistan, there is some indication that Asian origin fighters are migrating to this region and mostly those who migrate will join ranks with militants from Pakistan and Bangladesh regions. This is an important fact that ISIS defeat in Iraq and Syria and the prospects for relocation of certain chapters to this region is possible. The state has to be very careful, very vigilant about their movement. I think as Russia’s role is growing in Afghanistan, both Russian and China are really concerned about this ISIS threat in Afghanistan. It helps us broaden out threat perception.
Q: How do you see Russian efforts to tactically isolate IS terrorists in Afghanistan so they couldn’t enter central Asian states and Russia itself? Furthermore, the Saudis have also raised and Islamic military alliance. Do you feel the threat is so serious to justify these moves by both Saudi and Russia or these efforts might have other covert designs?
MAR: There may be because the non-state actors have some designs and sometime the institutions within states have also their own designs. The best counterinsurgency approaches pay due heed to those actors who have potential to exploit. But this is always considered as the one component of an insurgency. We need to understand the mindset and the capability of these militant groups and their broader linkages with the conflict. This and other factors I guess Pakistan should be mindful regarding IS.
Q: Keeping in view the level of radicalisation in Pak society, do you believe the government is serious in confronting the threat? Do you think the implementation of NAP has achieved desired goals or the government has failed in countering the terrorism threat?
MAR: NAP is a big failure because it hasn’t been taken seriously. Because of the weak threat perception of the political government, they are thinking if they could take some cosmetic measures they’ll give the impression of implementation. If you go through NAP point by point, you’ll notice that only two or three things happened. We’ve got military courts, we’ve achieved that but the most important role of police has not been appropriately addressed.
Police cannot take the burden of policy errors of the political regime. That’s why you see every time we question, be it Qazi Essa Commission Report or statements of army chief, they don’t identify the gaps and the lags, they summon in another monitoring body and then another monitoring body. When you keep on making monitoring bodies whether under General Nasir Janjua or under NACTA, they won’t be helpful.
We have to focus precisely on each point of NAP from madrassa reform to banning militant organisations, from cyber threat to terror financing all the way to the reconciliation process. Can they tell us what they have achieved on these counts?