Amid back channel diplomacy
According to Para 4 of the short order of the apex court in the Panamagate verdict, the special bench of the Supreme Court can refer Sharif’s case for disqualification earlier than the stipulated period of two months
In the aftermath of the Panamagate verdict, the opposition in unison is shouting at the top of its voice, “Go Nawaz Go.” However, the prime minister seems quite oblivious to these voices. For him it is business as usual.
Why else would he be meeting the Indian steel magnate and personal friend Sajjan Jindal quite clandestinely in Murree at this juncture? Naturally as soon as the news of the surreptitious contact leaked out, it stirred up a hornet’s nest.
According to the prime minister’s daughter and heir apparent Maryam Nawaz, there was nothing sinister or secret about the meeting. Her father and Jindal were old friends.
This is precisely the tragedy of the Sharif clan. It seems to be quite unconcerned about the fine line between the personal and the state or the government.
The foreign office was not in the loop nor ostensibly was the GHQ. Jindal might be a common friend of the Indian and Pakistani prime ministers. But his three contacts at various times during the past three years have been a disaster for brokering even a modicum of understanding between the two estranged neighbours.
Jindal’s name surfaced during Sharif’s Delhi visit three years ago for the oath taking ceremony of Narendra Modi. At the time the prime minister took time out to have dinner with the steel tycoon at the expense of not meeting the Hurriyat leadership as per past tradition.
Jindal made another attempt when he managed to get the Indian prime minister to come to Lahore for the marriage of Sharif’s granddaughter in December 2015. Both contacts did not result in any kind of a thaw between New Delhi and Islamabad. On the contrary it further soiled already frayed relations of the prime minister with the military leadership.
The timing of the most recent visit of the steel tycoon with two of his associates in tow is rather odd. With Sharif facing an onslaught of the opposition post Panamagate verdict and preparing himself to face tough questions from the JIT (joint investigation team) formed on the orders of the apex court, this is hardly the time to stir up another controversy.
Ostensibly Sharif’s Indian guests were trying to broker a meeting between him and his India counterpart on the sidelines of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) summit to be held in June. New Delhi wants a reprieve for Kulbhushan Jadhav, the convicted Indian spy who was handed a death sentence last month by a military court.
Whatever the nature of the mission of Sharif’s “personal friends”, it was certainly not just to have a cup of tea at his Murree abode. But the fact that the meeting was kept a secret with no one including the foreign office in the loop naturally gave rise to speculation about the real motive behind it.
A reliable source informed me that Jindal’s visit was in fact personal business related. The steel tycoon has an iron ore concession in Afghanistan worth 1.5 billion US dollars. There is no way of transporting the ore to India except through Pakistan. Hence Jindal’s impromptu visit from Kabul was to secure transit rights.
Secret or back channel diplomacy has its advantages but has its downside as well. Talks under the radar between emissaries can be useful.
Any realistic possibility of a thaw between adversarial neighbours should always be explored. But when the prime minister is conducting informal talks behind the scenes on sensitive and volatile issues like Indo-Pak relations at least a representative of the foreign office should be present.
New Delhi is reluctant to resume formal talks with Pakistan even at official’s level unless it is convinced that Islamabad is ‘no longer backing India specific terrorists’. Furthermore the situation in Indian Held Kashmir (IHK) has deteriorated to such an extent that independent observers are wondering whether India is losing Kashmir. In this context, coupled with the belligerent posture of the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), why has the prime minster chosen to engage in such futile diplomacy?
In any case Sharif, instead of chasing mirages, should be more worried about his personal survival in the face of the opposition’s joint putsch against him. Imran Khan, despite claiming that he accepts the Supreme Court verdict on Panamagate, is aggressively clamouring for the prime minister’s scalp.
After holding a successful public rally in Islamabad, the Khan is taking his road show to Karachi on Monday. The PPP erstwhile branded as a “friendly opposition” is also demanding the prime minister’s resignation.
Thankfully for the ruling party, the PPP and the PTI apart from cursing Nawaz Sharif are at each other’s throat as well. This could possibly be a window of opportunity for the PML-N to evolve some modus vivendi with the PPP.
Zardari for the time being has ruled out even shaking hands with Sharif. He has a catalogue of complaints against the prime minister, sounding quite bitter that Sharif used him at his time of need only to ditch him later.
Perhaps the situation could have been retrieved if the PML-N had not gone into election mode so early. Nawaz Sharif’s recent visits to Sindh, addressing public meetings and offering goodies, raised the ante unnecessarily. But while the PPP and the PTI are engaged in a verbal brawl, how does it suit the PML-N to also jump in the fray? In any case the PML-N, quite secure in its domain in Punjab, is virtually non-existent in Sindh.
Sharif right now more than anything else, should be more worried about his legal defence facing the JIT. Probably after distributing methaiis (sweets) and exchanging jhapphis (celebratory hugs) the stark reality has sunk in the first family’s camp that the prime minister’s neck could still be on the line.
According to Para 4 of the short order of the apex court in the Panamagate verdict, the special bench of the Supreme Court can refer Sharif’s case for disqualification earlier than the stipulated period of two months. It states: …upon receipt of the reports, periodic or final of the JIT, as the case may be, the matter of disqualification of respondent no.1 will be considered.
The PML-N has threatened legal action against Imran for making the wild allegation that Nawaz Sharif through a common friend had offered Khan 10 billion rupees to buy his silence on Panamagate hearings during the trial. The rest of the opposition has asked the PTI chief to substantiate his wild allegations.
It will perhaps be difficult for the PTI chief to do so. He has a penchant for making fantastic claims against his opponents without proper fact checking.
Hopefully the present charge will not meet the same fate as the ‘35 punctures’ accusation against Najam Sethi as caretaker chief minister of Punjab during the 2013 elections. In this case however Imran Khan claims that the offer was made directly to him. He should certainly come up with a name soon.
Nonetheless the country is prematurely in election mode. If elections are held on time the campaign could extend up till at least early next year that may have disastrous consequences for the future of democratic institutions, as well as in the domain of the economy and foreign policy.
Perhaps the PML-N leadership should consider going into elections before the expiry of its term. In any case it needs a fresh mandate in the wake of a divided polity.
