Energy shortfall – the next big thing

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    A man walks past electricity pylons as he returns from work in Soweto, outside Johannesburg May 15, 2012. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko

    An unfulfilled promise

    Claims and promises to deal with the power crisis have remained a dominating element in the election campaign of any political party for almost a decade now to gain interest and support from the public in the elections

     

    With the arrival of soaring summers, the loch ness monster of energy crisis, once forgotten, seems to now have woken up vigorously, taking a toll on the nation once again. The shortfall of electricity, at present, has reached up to the 5,000MW digit, leaving the nation in a hapless situation. Those residing in the urban areas are facing 8-10 hours of load shedding daily as opposed to 10-14 hours of load shedding for those dwelling the rural parts of the country.

    Where, on one side, the nation is now apparently accustomed to the sufferings of electricity outages, on the other they are used to the false promises made by in-coming political parties with respect to overcoming the reigning power crisis in the country.

    Claims and promises to deal with the power crisis have remained a dominating element in the election campaign of any political party for almost a decade now to gain interest and support from the public in the elections.

    With the PPP tenure coming to an end in 2013, the energy sector in the country was in dire need of attention, and rigorous reform measures, something that was then capitalised on by the PML-N during their election campaign. The chief minister of Punjab and PML-N leader, Mian Shahbaz Sharif, has perhaps remained most vocal in criticising the PPP led government for the state of power sector in the country, and topped the list of making promises to the nation on putting an end to the problem of megawatt shortfall once and for all, provided PML-N takes charge of affairs.

    Four years down the line, with the PML-N government in the center, along-side Punjab, the energy shortfall in the country persists, and continues to haunt the nation with its presence. The federal minister for water and power, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, seemingly during all this time remained focused on his other scope of responsibility i.e. the defense ministry, leaving the latter to the minister of state, Abid Sher Ali, who again remained very active in making claims rather than resorting to concrete measures.

    A promise made by a political party not bearing fruition, however, remains no aberration for the nation. Overcoming the energy crisis and fulfilling the needs of future requires time, and long term commitment, and so our political parties must put up their promises to the nation more wisely.

    The persistence and its reasons…

    The foremost reason for the persistence of energy shortfalls is negligence on part of the government to resolve this problem. The concerned ministry for water and power has remained, throughout this period, on the back foot, and has once again been struggling to fulfill the federal government’s promises to overcome the longing power crisis in the country. Although the ministry claims to be working on several projects designed to alleviate the energy crisis, the results of these are yet to reach practicality.

    The production of electricity has dropped down to 9,400MW as opposed to 14,500MW need.

    Another major reason for the drop in energy production is the decreased level of water reservoirs, which has directly hampered the hydroelectricity generation. The total hydroelectric generation has abated to 1,900MW, whereas the capacity rests at 6,500MW. As a result, the power outages may continue in future, and the load shedding duration is expected to increase, provided water reservoirs are restored to their fullest capacity.

    Last but not the least political opposition to various power projects has also hampered the enhancement of existing power generation infrastructure to meet the soaring demands of energy.

    CPEC, which is being declared as a potential game changer for Pakistan, will also host several power generation initiatives which will add to Pakistan’s self-sufficiency in the power sector

     

    Journey from worse to bad!

    The government, although may be lagging on fulfilling its promise to eradicate load shedding completely from the country by March 2018, it must, however, be acknowledged that there has been considerable improvement in transmission of electricity, and a reduction in load shedding durations is visible.

    The consumers across the country were facing up to 14-18 hours of load shedding during the PPP tenure, which has now reduced to 8-12 hours.

    In recent years, several power projects have been initiated which are expected to add considerably to the total power generation of the country. 26 coal based power projects are underway, the largest solar park in Pakistan is being built, the 1200MW Balloki power plant is scheduled to be commissioned later this year, the 1320MW coal fired Sahiwal power project is expected to be commission in June-July, 2017. The total nuclear power generation now stands at 1,040MW with the inauguration of CHASHNUP III, the third unit of Chashma Nuclear power plant.

    According to the ministry of water and power, Pakistan is expected to add approximately 5,000MW of energy in to the system by March 2018, which will by large help in overcoming the energy shortfall. It is also encouraging seeing the diversification of sources in energy generation, rather than relying on a few.

    CPEC, which is being declared as a potential game changer for Pakistan, will also host several power generation initiatives which will add to Pakistan’s self-sufficiency in the power sector.

    If not great, at least we have jumped out of the worse category with respect to the power sector.

    Mission impossible?

    The lingering of the energy crisis raises a question that, are we on a mission impossible when we talk about putting an end to the latter? Despite promises left unfulfilled, and claims not honoured by political parties, there is tremendous potential for improvement, and opportunity to uplift the energy sector.

    Although the progress made in this regard has been slow, yet the situation in comparison to the past has gotten better, and the projects initiated are expected to further abate the existing gap in demand and supply of energy upon their completion. Commitment, persistence, and long term planning on part of the government are keys to prevalence here.

    Energy crisis if not dealt with effectively will certainly be the next big challenge for any government to come.