Russian and Chinese influence has given Pakistan considerable confidence
International relations are defined, dictated and shaped by individual state interests and these relationships can grow only if all these countries align their interests and address each other’s concerns
The season of befriending old enemies, forging new regional alliances and searching for greener pastures near fatherland is upon us. The post-Soviet hegemony of US is slowly but surely on its way out with the imminent rise of China and Russia on the global stage. The role of Pakistan amidst all this is of pivotal importance, as it stands on the crossroads of history, once again.
DNA sat with seasoned columnist, defence analyst, notable author of five books on defence and strategy and Executive Director of Center for Research and Security Studies that primarily focuses on issues of security, radicalisation and governance, Mr Imtiaz Gul, to make sense of Pakistan’s new bonhomie with Russia, the role of China in the emerging global scenario and Iran’s gradual distancing from India.
Question: Do you think it is ironic that all this time after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan – and everything that came with the war – Pakistan recently hosted Russian officers in Waziristan; not so far from those warm waters?
Imtiaz Gul: It is in a way ironic, but not unusual as in international politics there are no permanent enemies or friends. Relationships and alliances are shaped by the compulsion of circumstances. That is why we have the Russians right now; we hosted them in an area that had been used as a launching pad against them in the past. So, it is just the compulsion of the circumstances. I guess it will grow further.
The world has seen a lot of turmoil since 1979. The Russians have learned their lessons and China has emerged as the biggest regional power, which is standing silently by the Russian side because there is synergy of interests between the two countries. They are looking at the region from their perspective. I guess this relationship is likely to grow.
I would say this is the beginning of another cold war as you know the Indians, the Japanese and others on one hand and the other Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and others trying to pitch together their own alliance in a way that wouldn’t jeopardise their long term interest
One would hope that Pakistan has also learned some lessons, however, the indications are not good, like Pakistan’s decision to send General Raheel Sharif to become the head of the 39-member alliance against terrorism. I think Pakistan has caught up with its alliance with the United States. One would just hope that Pakistan continues to play its cards right in conjunction with the interests and concerns of China in particular and Russia as well. China has offered Pakistan a strategic embrace, however there’ll be expectations attached to Pakistan related to terrorism. Pakistan’s counter-terrorism strategy, which addresses the concerns of neighbouring countries, needs to be clear and quantifiable. So, it is hard to say whether Pakistan has learned its lesson in a real way.
Q: Defence cooperation with the Russians has been increasing since ’14, though apparently under a very cautious watch on both sides. Do you feel there is a chance of substantial commerce and military ties with Moscow?
IG: See, the thing is as long as the political relationship grows and stays on track between Pakistan and Russia nothing can stop the commercial trade or military cooperation as it is a given.
Let us not forget that both countries have a past. Once political relations improve between both countries, we will see growing and deepening ties both on the trade and commercial frontier and military ties will surely improve for the better.
Q: Considering Russia’s proximity with China, and Pakistan’s own special relationship with Beijing, is there a possibility for deeper regional alliance?
IG: I think they are already in an alliance, if you look at the peace initiative by Moscow they’ve already involved 12 countries including United States now regardless of whether US attends the Moscow meeting on 14 April or not. So they are already close to each other through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as well as the Afghanistan Peace Initiative.
This relationship will most probably grow further. International relations are defined, dictated and shaped by individual state interests and these relationships can grow only if all these countries align their interests and address each other’s concerns. Regardless of whether they can form an alliance or not as long as they are on the same page on political issues I think that becomes a good starting point, a good foundation for commercial relationships as well as military cooperation.
Q: Russian and Chinese influence to end the war in Afghanistan, which will naturally draw on Pakistan’s leverage, will also put the squeeze on India’s interests there. Do you feel Pakistan’s relations with Russia and China have helped counter Indian attempts to isolate it?
IG: Very clearly, India and PM Modi adopted a policy of squeezing with aim to teach Pakistan a lesson and finally isolate it globally. That worked for a very short time only when India could coerce small countries like Nepal, Bhutan, and Afghanistan to boycott SAARC Conference in Pakistan. Otherwise, unfortunately for India, because of Pakistan’s location and Pakistan’s size and its military weight, it was very difficult to isolate Pakistan. I think we’ve seen the re-positioning of Pakistan to counter this Indian policy and we saw Marine Naval Exercise, ECO Conference and we now are witnessing how General Raheel is all set to head the 39-country alliance. It all proved a big snub to Indian tries to isolate Pakistan.
Russian and Chinese influence has given Pakistan considerable confidence in positioning itself vis-a-vis not only India but Afghanistan and rest of the world. I think the Chinese embrace has come as the big boon for Pakistan politically, economically and diplomatically.
Q: With Iran showing signs of distancing itself from India while inching towards Russia and China, the plot looks to be thickening. Moreover, the recent tilt of Turkey towards Moscow also reflects a paradigm shift. Despite all the complexities involved, two new regional and global alliances are emerging, comprising China, Russia and Pakistan on the one hand and India, US, Japan and their allies on the other. Are we finally heading towards another cold war like era or is it the beginning of the end — World War-III?
IF: Since we are seeing an era of realignment of political interests and, increasingly with the arrival of Modi in India and Donald Trump in US, I think other countries feel forced to look for greater regional cooperation. Perhaps they think it is more beneficial for their immediate, mid-term and long-term interest than hanging around with the United States.
I would say this is the beginning of another cold war as you know the Indians, the Japanese and others on one hand and the other Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and others trying to pitch together their own alliance in a way that wouldn’t jeopardise their long term interest. We shouldn’t be so despondent as to call it the beginning of the end.