Ground realities belie expectations.
While the FO says Pakistan desires to maintain peaceful relations with India and Afghanistan, there are no signs of this happening any time soon with the result that Pakistan army has to be be vigilant on the country’s eastern and western borders. Many had hoped that once elections in Utter Pradesh (UP) which is India’s most populous state were over PM Modi would respond to Pakistan’s overtures for talks. What is actually happening does not bode well for mutual relations. Indian army chief talked about the option of Cold Start still being on the table. There are also indications that India is set to replace the policy of nuclear restraint with the doctrine of pre-emptive nuclear strikes. Presumably, Modi is waiting for a meeting with the US President later this year to decide whether it suited him to soften or stiffen relations with Pakistan.
Despite a meeting between Sartaj Aziz and Afghanistan’s National Security Adviser Hanif Atmar in London last month, there has been little progress on ground towards improvement of mutual relations. The claim by Islamabad regarding a growing understanding between both the countries on tackling terrorism is belied by Afghan FO’s statement that Kabul would take the issue of border fencing to the UN. There is a perception that the Afghans too are waiting for the Trump administrations’ Afghan policy.
Some in Pakistan were hoping for a strong rebuttal from Trump administration after US Diplomat Nikki Haley’s suggestion of a role in India-Pak parleys was immediately brushed aside by New Delhi. For them the new appointment to South Asian desk in the White House National Security setup should act as a damper.
South Asia and Central Asia happen to be at the tail end of Trump’s priority list. What is more, Trump remains highly unpredictable. This is what Syria’s Bashar al Assad, who was misled by Trump’s remarks, has discovered to his dismay. Pakistan, India and Afghanistan need to draw the right conclusion. They should resolve their differences through talks or be prepared for something unexpected.