And the main spoiler
Iran and Afghanistan, the two key partners of India, are still weighing options about switching sides. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani recently conducted visits to Islamabad and Beijing for improving ties
Foreign policy shifts by emerging economic and military powers of Asia i.e. China, Russia, Pakistan and India, have unsettled the Great Game apple cart and it seems that the fast changing interests of the nations involved have compelled regional and global players to redraw and redesign their respective game plans.
As a surprise to many, India’s decision-makers made a diplomatic fiasco by ignoring their strategic ally Russia as they decided to jump on to the bandwagon of western allies led by the United States in 2005.
On the other hand, the silent rise of China as an emerging global economic giant had led the US policymakers to ditch their strategic ally, Pakistan, and they went ahead with a new partnership with New Delhi.
The situation left Russia to look for new regional and global partners. China was the answer for the Kremlin.
On the other hand, Beijing too was alarmed by the developments. This was perhaps the major reason that Chinese leadership decided to expand its outreach to Pakistan which could provide it with the alternative energy and economy route bypassing Indian waters and into the Gulf.
The Chinese leadership believed that Islamabad needed stability and economic revival to ensure its security. This perhaps was the reason that Beijing decided to launch the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Moscow was monitoring these new alignments very cautiously, of course, and felt the time had come for warmth with Pakistan. But due to bitter past experiences, it took time to respond to the positive vibes from Islamabad. Russia, perhaps, was left with no alternative either after India joined the US coalition.
Iran and Afghanistan, the two key partners of India, are still weighing options about switching sides. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani recently conducted visits to Islamabad and Beijing for improving ties. Rouhani also visited Moscow last week in a bid to exchange notes with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
India wants escalation of tension and conflict to affect any development in the region, thus creating an unfavourable situation for mega development projects like CPEC, North South Corridor, etc
Before Rouhani, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also visited Russia. This reflects the growing clout of Vladimir Putin who has a macho man image for US and its allies.
India started hobnobbing with the US administration in 2005. The prolonged consultations brought about the Indo-US nuclear deal in October 2008, when Congress gave final approval to an agreement facilitating nuclear cooperation. Both countries have turned into strategic partners since then.
Perhaps policymakers in Washington believe India could be its new gate-keeper in the Asia continent and it, along with other regional partners like Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Vietnam, could help US policy contain China’s phenomenal rise.
Russia, on the other hand, did not seek new partners until October 2012 when the then army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani visited Moscow. It was the start of ice melting process in the Kremlin.
On a cold night on 23 February 2017, when military officers and diplomats had gathered at a reception at a local hotel in Islamabad to observe the Armed Forces Day of the Russian Federation, participants were shocked to notice Pakistan’s chief of general staff (CGS), Lt-Gen Bilal Akbar, at the ceremony; who came without any prior notice or protocol.
Gen Bilal Akbar, who shot to fame after a successful paramilitary forces operation in violence-hit Karachi, perhaps came to the function to send a strong message of cordiality to Moscow.
To respond to the friendly gesture, Russian Ambassador Alexey Yurevich Dedov made an unusual call on Chief of the Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa the very next week, perhaps to express his gratitude to the army leadership for Gen Akbar’s gesture.
A month later, Colonel General Istrakov Sergei Yuryevich, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of Russia, paid an official visit to Pakistan.
Since Russian intervention in the Middle East has thwarted western efforts to remap the region, the growing Pakistan-Russia defence cooperation is a major source of concern for New Delhi, which is hell bent on dismembering Pakistan.
If China’s ascendance on the international horizon has been a major blow to the western game plan in Asia, a bigger shock for them is the military achievements of Vladimir Putin in the Middle East. He has literally checkmated US plans in Syria and Turkey.
But more surprises are yet to come from Moscow. Putin has not only won over Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Russian leader has also jumped into the reconciliation efforts to bring peace in Afghanistan – the linchpin of the new Great Game.
After two initial meetings on Afghan peace, Moscow again is ready to host the third consecutive sitting on April 14 and this time around delegations from twelve countries have been invited. Interestingly, US has also been requested to join the sitting though during the previous sitting it was ignored.
It is highly likely that the US may miss the upcoming meeting in Russia. Perhaps, the presence of China, Russia and Pakistan in the meeting has convinced Washington not to join the huddle. However, this strategy may backfire soon as a breakthrough in talks may sideline the US even more.
Since Iran is warming up to Moscow and China with a desire to join CPEC, President Rouhani may be duped by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s anti-Pakistan plot. Policymakers in Tehran should take into account that the India-encouraged Pakistani Baloch separatism directly affects Iran’s interests.
Modi’s aggressive and very clear intimation that he supports Baloch separatism in Pakistan is bound to lead to destabilisation of the Iranian province of Sistan–Balochistan which hosts the Chabahar Port.
Some Indian commentators view the recent India-Iran-Afghanistan agreement to develop a trade route from Chabahar to Central Asia as a part of a new great game for control of the connection between South and Central Asia through Afghanistan. It has also been claimed that the agreement will end India’s ‘isolation’ from Central Asia and Pakistan’s ‘stranglehold’ over Afghanistan and create a ‘new security paradigm’ and a ‘geopolitical shift’.
Moreover, the Indian posturing of “Free Balochistan” coincidentally aligns with the US’ grand strategy on Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. The US decision-makers also aim to asymmetrically target Iran and Russia by undermining their economic stability and long-term outlook.
It would be ‘killing two birds with one stone’ if the co-opted militants from the separatist war in Pakistan’s Balochistan areas would target Sistan and Balochistan provinces of Iran in order to deal a blow to both Moscow and Tehran’s strategic long-term economic interests in Chabahar.
As the region is witnessing realignments spearheaded by China and Russia, any improvement in relations between Pak and Iran will be the focal target of the hybrid war waged with covert support from the west. India’s new found bonhomie with the US may prove to be detrimental for Tehran. Moreover, India’s deepening engagement with Israel and the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council also ringing alarm bells among the Iranian leadership.
Also, India’s decades-old close strategic, defence and political ties with Israel are a sore-point for Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as well as other Middle East nations. During my recent trip to Tehran, it was heartening to note that the Iranian leadership is alive to the security concerns of Pakistan vis-à-vis Indian pronounced belligerency towards Pakistan. During my recent meeting with Mr Keyan Khusravi, the advisor to secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, it was reassured that Iran may never become an instrument to trigger a new regional conflict.
The new great game looks like a continuation of the previous strategies too as the US and its allies, led by India, aim at frustrating China’s initiative of One Belt and One Road (OBOR). Since OBOR initiative is a new strategy of China to link economic and social ties of East Asia with central Asia, Eurasia, Africa and beyond, western strategists want to scuttle the plan.
For this purpose, the western states have found a new ally in Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is pushing the extremist agenda of Hindutva.
It has become known that India has always desired and attempted to disintegrate Pakistan. The Indian role in the creation of Bangladesh needs no verification. Now, Indian establishment is endeavoring to create dissentions in Balochistan, Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Kashmir under a vicious plan to dissolve Pakistan’s territorial integrity.
Perhaps, the Indian deep state intends to escalate tensions inside of Pakistan as ‘payback’ for the protests that have been rocking Indian Occupied Kashmir for the past eight months. Unfortunately, the Indian media is all too eager to assist the rampage of Indian brutal forces against innocent Kashmiris. The Indian media has gone overboard in its characteristic jingoism by even comparing Balochistan to Bangladesh. It is likely that an intense and orchestrated media campaign on Balochistan will be re-invigorated in the near future.
By opposing CPEC, India is opposing any development of Balochistan’s infrastructure and standard of living of the people because this would then solve public problems and make it more of an integrated and stable part of Pakistan.
Prime Minister Modi’s speech and the cascade of hyper-nationalist commentary followed by the mysterious incidents like Uri attack are a signal to the strengthening of Hybrid War, hoping that Pakistan will take the bait of militantly overreacting and creating a larger self-perpetuating cycle of violence that would descend into a quagmire with time.
India wants escalation of tension and conflict to affect any development in the region, thus creating an unfavourable situation for mega development projects like CPEC, North South Corridor, etc. Escalation of tension on the line of control (LoC) with Pakistan and unprovoked shelling are manifestations of the same game plan.
While India left the multi-polar geopolitical camp to join the US, it was a huge blow to New Delhi when President Donald Trump vowed to pursue deglobalisation and focus on internal issues faced by the world’s lone super power. One also wonders whether India planned to play “Trojan Horse” of the US by entering the Shanghai Cooperation Organistaion (SCO)?
