Dangers of a war over water
“On the surface level, it appears that Modi is interested in engaging Pakistan. However, on the strategic level, beyond rhetoric, this policy gesture is nothing more than a historic ploy to keep Pakistan occupied with table talks while India implements its long term strategies of frustrating Pakistan of its water shares.”
From last few months, the Indus water treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan has been the latest highlight of both countries protracted conflict. The IWT which was concluded in 1960 between India and Pakistan has over the years been considered a remarkable diplomatic achievement, considering both countries historic conflict and inability to resolve bilateral differences with the mediation of external powers. The water treaty that became possible with the intervention of the World Bank, has survived more than five decades of confrontations including three major wars and numerous diplomatic scuffles.
Both India and Pakistan have competed for waters of the Indus system. Disputes between the both countries in this regard have risen in the last few years both countries intend to access traditional waters. However, recently the water treaty has come under attack with the government in India under Prime Minister Modi, making threats related to disrupting Pakistan’s water supplies that largely stem from the Indian controlled Kashmir region.
The right-wing hard line government in New Delhi has skilfully used the water dispute between India and Pakistan to scale down public pressure that over the last one year has deepened in India in response to militant attacks in the country which the Indian government believes were carried out by militants based in Pakistan. In an apparent response to the Uri attack, last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quoted as saying that “Blood and water cannot flow together.” Moreover, in another statement, Prime Minister Modi was noted as saying that “water belonging to India cannot be allowed to go to Pakistan.”
“While Pakistan needs an effective water policy, the country also needs to ensure that its water resources are diversified, for relying on India when the latter is bent upon using the water issue as bait, is not going to resolve Pakistan water problems. It’s imminent that Pakistan takes away water leverage from India.”
The recent talks related to India’s willingness to reengage with Pakistan on the issues of water have no strategic value. Many analysts in Pakistan have argued that perhaps Prime Minister Modi’s needed to take a tough line against Pakistan – including on the water dispute – for the recent polls in India demanded that the BJP resort to its traditional anti Pakistan rhetoric in order to appease its domestic voters. And now that the polls are over with the BJP having won a landslide victory, Modi has regained the much needed diplomatic space to engage with Pakistan. An Indian delegation’s recent visit to Islamabad for talks on the sharing of the waters of the river Indus between India and Pakistan has been cited as an example of this reengagement.
On the surface level, it appears that Modi is interested in engaging Pakistan. However, on the strategic level, beyond rhetoric, this policy gesture is nothing more than a historic ploy to keep Pakistan occupied with table talks while India implements its long term strategies of frustrating Pakistan of its water shares. Reports are already afoot, saying that India is not likely to participate in secretary-level talks on the Ratle and Kishanganga hydropower projects in Washington next month, for the delegation that visited Islamabad recently is sceptical of Pakistan’s seriousness to resolve the issue.
Andrew Gizman, in his recently released book, “Overheated: The Human Cost of Climate Change” argues that India has long considered water as a weapon of war against Pakistan. “With each new dam project, India increases its ability to use water as a weapon when the next war [with Pakistan] comes. Knowing that India can do this in the event of war, Pakistan has a strong incentive to avoid a violent conflict. This means that India can take a harder line, because a military response would be devastating for Pakistan…If the countries [Pakistan and India] are at war, India has no reason to worry about an obvious “manipulation” of the water flow. By the same logic, India may be prepared to trigger floods or droughts in Pakistan if there is a conflict short of war but severe enough that India doesn’t care being obvious. This gives Pakistan one more thing to worry about during its e frequent disputes with India.”
Seemingly, Pakistan on its part has failed from preparing an effective case against India’s water coercion. While Pakistan continues to issue statement related to India’s water policies, it has been very seldom that Islamabad was able to make a strong case in international dispute resolution arenas in this regard. All of this has been happening when water scarcity in Pakistan has reached dangerous levels. Moreover, the looming effects of climate change and Pakistan’s inability to explore other sources of power generation and water storage have literally made the threat of water shortage more imminent. According to Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Centre, “Pakistan’s economy is the most water-intensive in the world, and yet it has dangerously low levels of water to work with.”
While Pakistan needs an effective water policy, the country also needs to ensure that its water resources are diversified, for relying on India when the latter is bent upon using the water issue as bait, is not going to resolve Pakistan water problems. It’s imminent that Pakistan takes away water leverage from India.
