As tension rises in the Korean Peninsula and heightens the crisis, United Nations Security Council, held a closed-door briefing on North Korea’s latest ballistic missile launches, while China called for North Korea, South Korea and the United States to take steps to avoid a “head-on collision.”
The predicament has arisen because of North Korea continuing with its nuclear missile testing despite UN sanctions forbidding them whereas the U.S. has deployed the first elements of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile defence system to South Korea; one day after North Korea launched at least four ballistic missiles.
It may be understood that both North and South Korea are the main protagonists while the US, instead of diffusing the tensions, added fuel to the fire when last year, Washington and Seoul agreed to expedite the U.S. missile shield deployment in the face of North Korea’s accelerated testing and development of its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
China, which has long been perceived to be a North Korean ally, has decided to adopt a more mature and responsible role by attempting to resolve the crisis. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has proposed that North Korea suspend its nuclear and missile activities, and in exchange the United States and South Korea halt their joint military drills and suspend the deployment of THAAD missiles in South Korea.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared in a speech on New Year’s Day 2017 that his country’s program to build inter-continental ballistic missiles had “reached its final stage.” North Korea has been under U.N. sanctions since 2006, along with an arms embargo aimed at slowing the development of its banned nuclear and missile programs.
Defying the embargo, North Korea fired four ballistic missiles into the sea off Japan’s northwest coast on March 6, 2017, which coincided with the commencement of joint U.S. and South Korean annual defence exercises in South Korean territory.
Pyongyang conducted two unauthorised nuclear test explosions last year and nearly two dozen rocket launches in a continuing push to expand its nuclear weapons and missile programs. The United States and a vast majority of world governments have repeatedly demanded that the North denuclearise the Korean peninsula. However, Western leaders have yet to devise a plan that would either compel the North to cooperate or create incentives for it to do so.
North Korea’s nuclear programme can be traced back to 1962. In 1963 it asked the Soviet Union and China to help it develop nuclear weapons but both refused. The Soviet Union agreed to help North Korea develop a peaceful nuclear energy program, including the training of nuclear scientists. North Korea’s nuclear weapons program dates back to the 1980s. In 1985 it ratified the NPT but did not conclude the required safeguards agreement with the IAEA until 1992. In early 1993, while verifying North Korea’s initial declaration, the IAEA concluded that there was strong evidence this declaration was incomplete. When North Korea refused the requested special inspection, the IAEA reported its non-compliance to the UN Security Council. In 1993, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the NPT, but suspended that withdrawal before it took effect. The United States nearly went to war with North Korea in June 1994 to stop its nuclear weapons program. It had tried coercion and threats, which did not work. The current deployment of US THAAD missile systems in South Korea is not the first. In March 1994 the Washington and Seoul agreed to deploy Patriot missiles to South Korea in response to the threat posed by North Korea’s ballistic missiles. The US also stationed additional troops, weapon systems, fighter aircraft, attack helicopters and positioned a carrier battle group in the area.
Ultimately, good sense prevailed with the visit of former US President Carter to Pyongyang and cool down tempers with the promise of US cooperation rather than coercion. In October 1994, U.S. and North Korea concluded the Agreed Framework, under which the United States promised to help replace the North’s nuclear reactors with two, more-proliferation-resistant light-water reactors; provide security assurances; and, forge diplomatic and economic ties in return for a verifiable end to its nuclear arms program. Regrettably, implementation of the Agreed Framework floundered, and in 2002 the Agreed Framework fell apart, with each side blaming the other for its failure.
On October 9, 2006, North Korea announced it had successfully conducted its first nuclear test. On January 6, 2007, the North Korean government further confirmed that it had nuclear weapons.
China has been constantly engaged in diplomatic efforts to diffuse the nuclear crisis. It sponsored talks between North Korea and a six-nation panel but in 2009, North Korea not only pulled out of the negotiations but carried out its second nuclear test. So far North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests and has confirmed that it has become a “fully fledged nuclear power”.
The last decade has been a cat and mouse game, in which Washington and Pyongyang have levelled charges of deceit and treachery against one another. In the bargain the US has continued its military presence in the region, which neutral observers perceive to be more an attempt to counter China rather than North Korea. Even now U.S. President Donald Trump has reaffirmed his “ironclad commitment” to stand with Japan and South Korea in the face of Pyongyang’s repeated violations of U.N. resolutions.
The U.S. considers the deployment of THAAD elements to be a bid to honour alliance commitments to South Korea and to help defend U.S. troops in the region, U.S. allies and the American homeland. Like the Patriot missile system, THAAD uses missiles to shoot down incoming missiles. THAAD is a battery of 48 missiles on mobile erector launchers that uses powerful radar and infrared technology to intercept missiles within a range of 200 km, while they are in their descent phase.
China has expressed strong reservations to the deployment of THAAD in South Korea.
Beijing objects to the advanced U.S. weapons system as an unnecessary and provocative military escalation, and says the powerful radar the system uses to track incoming missiles also poses a potential threat to China. While the South Korean ruling party strongly supports THAAD as a vital national security measure, public support is divided and some opposition party leaders have come out against it. Opponents point out THAAD’s limitations, that it cannot defend against a short range attack on the Seoul region, where nearly half the country’s population resides, and that in the event of a major attack THAAD’s 48 interceptor missiles will do little to stop the more than 1,000 missiles North Korea could fire.
China has done its best to bring the DPRK and the U.S. back to the negotiation table and push forward the six-party talks. Unfortunately, the Chinese proposal was rejected hours later by the United States and South Korea, which may only deepen the crisis but speaks volume of U.S. hostile intentions in the region.
