Why allow the operation now?
It’s likely that the new military chief may have pushed for the operation. However, the language involved here may surround around the clarification of the heightened stakes to the civilian leadership which apparently seem bigger than any supposed political costs the operation might bring
After a year-long marathon negotiation process between Punjab’s provincial government and the military establishment, Shahbaz Sharif has given the green light for Rangers-led military operations in the province.
The unexpected consensus among the civilian and military leadership regarding an army-led operation in the province has been nothing less than a surprise, particularly when the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz government has vehemently opposed any military operation on the basis that there exist no militant sanctuaries in Punjab. Besides, the green lighting of the operation also nullifies the provincial government’s justification that Punjab police retains necessary capacity to neutralise militant threats in the province.
Another argument that the PML-N’s leadership has widely shared for its reluctance for allowing boots on the ground perhaps deals with the operation’s likely backlash. For some time, it has been established beyond doubt that a military operation in Punjab is essential to consolidate Pakistan army’s counterterrorism gains that it has achieved in the last two years. Moreover, what is also an open secret is that the military as well as the government in Punjab – and centre – understand the rising militant challenge that the province’s sectarian organisation pose when it comes to militant’s threat for mainland Pakistan. The dilemma here is twofold: first, bad terrorists have been pushed out of the country’s tribal areas; however it does not mean that their connections and networks deep inside Pakistan have equally been isolated. Second, sectarian outfits based in Punjab – or one can call them the passive extremists – that are supplying the necessary ideological and logistical support to the militants that have fled the country, remain intact.
The Rangers operation in Punjab was always going to take place regardless of the civilian government’s support. There are two reasons for that: first, unless Punjab’s militant networks are neutralised, the military gains will always remain overshadowed. Second, the sectarian and other networks based in Punjab are a challenge for the government on its own: the proliferation of religious schools in Punjab and attached sectarian mushrooming will continue to remain a challenge in the way of successful implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP). One of the reasons that Punjab has remained unmoved about Madrassa’sregulation in the province is due to such networks opposition which often attracts public violence and support of other Islamist parties.
The government in Punjab has been pushed to the edge by the recent suicide bombings. Moreover, the fact that majority of these bombings took place in Lahore – the heart of Punjab – have only confirmed the country’s leadership’s fears that regardless of action or inaction against militant networks in Punjab or elsewhere in the country, violence will not recede unless a comprehensive effort is deployed all across the country. Arguably, the civilian leadership now is in a better position towards justifying the military operation in Punjab, for the public opinion after the wave of recent militant attacks has changed radically.
The Sharif brothers could not have stalled the operation in Punjab any longer. The mounting public pressure in the wake of recent attacks could only alienate the masses further if no credible action was taken mainly due to the anticipated backlash. The logic here is simple: its clear to the political leadership that the nascent phase of the military’s counterterrorism efforts is over where dismantling of proscribed organisations was done on a larger scale in the tribal areas. The phase which the country’s counter terrorism efforts are attempting to enter now deals with a degree of regrouping of militants after scattering for about two years. In this regard, the militants supposed sectarian and other networks in Punjab and elsewhere can prove deadly in terms of providing logistical wherewithal.
Moreover, it’s likely that the new military chief may have pushed for the operation. However, the language involved here may surround around the clarification of the heightened stakes to the civilian leadership which apparently seem bigger than any supposed political costs the operation might bring. What is further encouraging is that Punjab’s provincial government appears to be fully behind the action with the whole civilian law enforcement infrastructure coordinating with the military rather than hindering and bureaucratising the operation which might not prove effective or sustainable in terms of attaining necessary targets.
“If you’re asking how could the army launch a countrywide operation while the prime minister of the country is in Turkey, don’t stretch your imagination. Nawaz Sharif gave the all clear before he left… and the alacrity with which Shahbaz Sharif has been building the Punjab Rangers a sweet launching pad since his press conference last weekend is green-light enough,” says Wajahat Khan, an analyst of Pakistan’s national security affairs.
Seemingly the latest country-wide military operation, named Radd-ul-Fasaad, which also covers Punjab, appears to be the operation that everyone has been asking for. However, it’s too early to ascertain what this operation might achieve, for the strength of militant challenges still remains colossal.
