Pak-US relations under the Trump administration

There are more than just the obvious players involved

Pak-US relations are always influenced by the US “South Asian Policy”. Starting from the era of the Cold War, when the US needed Pakistan to play a role against the spread of communism, it stood with Pakistan by providing it with military and economic support. And when US interests diverged with Pakistan, it adopted a different approach. For example, in the event of Pakistan’s efforts for nuclear weapon, the US slammed economic sanctions on Pakistan. Now, under the Trump administration, the US policy towards Pakistan will be influenced by five factors:

1) US relations with China.

2) US Relations with India.

3) US policy on Afghanistan.

4) US relations with Russia.

5) Pakistan’s relations with China and Russia.

Different scenarios in these factors would influence the US policy towards Pakistan.

The US relations with China will affect its policy towards Pakistan. If the US-China relations soar, it will disturb the Pak-US Relations. Trump has said that he would use “One-China Policy” as leverage to sort out the trade-related issues with China. Also, he emphasised on adopting a protectionist policy towards China. If the US follows such an approach towards China, it will complicate US-Sino relations. In that case, the US would need India as a counter-weight against China. It would translate into an increase in Indian leverage on the US. And India would use it against Pakistan, emphasising on the hard-on approach on Pakistan, leaving both Pakistan and India to decide their issues bilaterally with no interference on the US. Such an approach was followed during US-India relations under Obama administration. In such a scenario, US would not be able to play its role in the resolution of Pak-India issues.

Secondly, India could use its leverage on the US against Pakistan in the context of India’s allegations of terrorism from across the border. If India exploits its leverage on the US, it implies that India would work on ‘isolating’ Pakistan by spreading a narrative that Pakistan supports anti-India elements within the country that is disturbing the regional peace. In such a scenario, the US might continue its policy of ‘do more’ to further disturb Pak-US relations. However, the Indian narrative against Pakistan holds no truth. Pakistan has successfully managed to defeat the terrorists after Operation Zarb-e-Azb, the fact accepted by the congressmen visiting the North Waziristan.

However, if the US-Sino relations do not turn sour, and the Trump administration engages with China on the basis of ‘commonalities of interests’, then that would have different implications for Pakistan. One commonality between the US and China with reference to Pakistan is that both the countries want peace in South Asia. China is engaged in extending its economic relations within the region, as is evidenced from its OBOR initiative. And the US has its own economic interests and political interests in the region. A peace in the region would mean economic opportunities, in terms of investments, consumer markets and the business linkages. In such a scenario, both the US and China can engage with India and Pakistan to make a conducive environment for peace-building between both the nations.

Then, there is the Afghan factor. Both China and the US want a peaceful Afghanistan. For China, its OBOR project, particularly CPEC’s success, depends on peace in Afghanistan as it is the only link connecting China with the rest of Central Asia through Pakistan. For peace in Afghanistan, peace in Pakistan is necessary, which in turn, depends on Pak-India relations. For the US, it needs to end its engagement in Afghanistan on a success note – establishing peace in Afghanistan. In this scenario, the commonalities of US-China interests will influence the US policy towards Pakistan. Trump has already stated that he would play its role in the resolution of Pak-India disputes. However, if the US fails to have any successes in bringing peace in Afghanistan, it would still carry on with its policy of ‘do more’, blaming Pakistan for its failures in Afghanistan. And any further US demands of acting against the Haqqani networks and Afghan Taliban would further disturb Pak-US Relations.

Pakistan is also reviving in economic terms. The economic atmosphere of the country has improved, as evidenced from the International improved rankings for Pakistan. MSCI ranked Pakistan from the ‘frontier’ state to the ‘emerging market’. The Economist in its report described Pakistan as fastest growing economy in the Muslim World. CPEC is transforming the infrastructure and connectivity of the country. It has made Pakistan an attractive destination for investment. Britain, France and Russia, other than China, have shown their willingness to be part of CPEC. In such an environment, the US cannot ignore Pakistan. Previously, the Pak-US relations were primarily based on military factors. Now, after CPEC and the growing opportunities in Pakistan, the US would engage Pakistan in economic sector. In this context, improving relations with Pakistan, and especially looking Pakistan in economic terms is in the interest of the US. If the US has its economic interests in Pakistan, it would work for making peace between Pakistan and India to gain the benefits of regional peace.

Lastly, Pakistan is building up its relations with Russia. On Afghanistan, Russia, China, Turkey and Pakistan have engaged themselves in bringing Afghan Taliban on the negotiating table to make way for peace in Afghanistan. If the US views the Russia-China-Turkey-Pakistan nexus not in terms of anti-American nexus, it has more reasons for the US to engage Pakistan. Two factors are important in this.

1. Peace in Afghanistan is in the interest of the US
2. US-Russia relations have better chances for improvement as evidenced from Trump’s speeches regarding Russia.

Taking advantage of the commonalities in their interests, all the above-mentioned states, with the involvement of the US can work for bringing regional stability and peace. In this sense, the Pak-US relations can have transformative effects as well. However, if the US views this nexus against it, it would complicate Pak-US relations with the US building up with India, and then India using its leverage on the US against Pakistan. Therefore, the Pak-US relations depend on the US relations with China, India, Russia and the US interests in Afghanistan.