Trump’s limitations in Pakistan

Pakistan can’t afford its isolation – but neither can the US

“One of the reasons that Washington has never looked out of this security prism as far as its dealings with Pakistan are concerned is due to the rationale that the latter has never been able to offer the former trade deals or economic incentives that the US, perhaps, sees in India – or any other major economic power in the region.”

As Donald Trump became president of the United States, states across the globe weighed their options – inside and outside the realm of diplomacy – to deal with the very unorthodox and eccentric incoming new Republican administration in Washington.

So far, we have learned that the incoming US president resents conventional diplomacy and his country’s long-lasting alliances globally. One thing that stands out in President Trump’s confrontational style is that he has questioned majority of the US alliances due to their economic burdens — which he claims are coming down on Washington. Besides the Middle Eastern terrorism issues, Trump has nullified his own establishment’s reasoning that Russia or China are a military threat for the US. Rather, he considers both an opportunity and a challenge in terms of their economic advantages that they may offer to Washington or take away from it. One thing is certain: Donald Trump is going to be a president of “economy” rather than “security” which is normally considered a byproduct of a Republican government.

In this context, Pakistan’s interests in the US — and vice versa – are in a very peculiar position. Thus far, Washington’s alliances with Pakistan have been of a security nature, aimed at serving the US military interests in the region. One of the reasons that Washington has never looked out of this security prism as far as its dealings with Pakistan are concerned is due to the rationale that the latter has never been able to offer the former trade deals or economic incentives that the US, perhaps, sees in India — or any other major economic power in the region.

However, the calculus of security might change now. While the Trump presidency offers Pakistan the same challenges that it has always faced in the form of threats and sanctions, Washington, under the new Republican administration, may present Pakistan with a new era of economic partnership — given the levels of investments and growth indicators Islamabad has received lately. With Chinese investments, Pakistan’s dependence on the US has gradually decreased. Moreover, a majority of Pakistan’s military arsenal is being replaced with Beijing’s technology and collaborations in this regard are only going to intensify. While it doesn’t mean that Pakistan is eager to – or, even wants to — get out of the US’s partnership, it is safe to say that in the coming months and years, Pakistan can afford to live with Washington’s threats and sanctions – provided its ongoing development cycle continues.

On the other hand, what is also important to note is that as far as the US security interests are concerned, Trump may not be interested in focusing on the Asia-Pacific region, particularly South Asia. The US’s focus in this regard may remain on Beijing’s expanding maritime interests and other territorial issues in the East and South China seas.

“While it doesn’t mean that Pakistan is eager to – or, even wants to – get out of the US’s partnership, it is safe to say that in the coming months and years, Pakistan can afford to live with Washington’s threats and sanctions – provided its ongoing development cycle continues to prosper.”

In Afghanistan, Trump will inherit America’s longest war — an entrenched conflict with very few solutions. It’s unlikely that the incoming US president is going to remain committed to Afghanistan in terms of flowing in cash to save the country’s broken economy. It’s no surprise that, thus far, Trump has said vey little on what he plans to do in Afghanistan, giving no clear statement.

Whatever Trump decides to do in Kabul would be limited by the ground realities which also involve neighbouring countries’ concerns and interests. Pakistan shares some strategic interests in Afghanistan which in a way have been one of the reasons for Islamabad’s reluctance to act against all militant groups, particularly the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network. It should not come as a surprise that the Afghan president — a few days ago — blamed Pakistan for a terror attack in his country by openly alleging that Afghanistan’s enemy roams openly in Pakistan. Arguably, the statement was meant to lure the attention of the incoming administration in the US: with the statement, President Ghani only reaffirmed what he has alleged before — that Pakistan offers shelters to militant groups that target Washington’s and Kabul’s interests alike.

In terms of military and intelligence collaboration, the US’s only contention with Pakistan is going to be its action or inaction against abovementioned militant groups. However, while it’s likely that Pakistan will continue to face sanctions from the US – in one form or the other – under the new administration, Islamabad can actually gain leverage by laying down its own concerns before the new administration as far Kabul’s disinterest to act against the Pakistani Taliban is concerned which Pakistan blames are based in Afghanistan.

Any tougher sanctions by the new US administration would mean isolation of a nuclear state which can only push Pakistan further in Beijing’s sphere of influence. While Washington may act tougher under the new administration, it’s improbable that Pakistan will change its long followed policy of selective targeting of insurgent groups unless its own security interests are offered some solace.