What can Pakistan expect from the Trump administration?
Pakistan has already had a love-hate kind of relationship with the US during the Obama administration, with the US resistance in providing Coalition Support Fund (CSF), the conflict in purchase of F16 fighter jets and Pakistan’s efforts to become a member of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)
With Donald Trump taking charge as the 45thpresident of United States on Friday, chatter regarding his policy towards Pakistan is making rounds in political circles. Since Trump belongs to the Republican Party and formed a pretty negative rhetoric against Muslims and Pakistan in his election campaign, it is to see if it was just rhetoric or he would really go hard on the country.
Pakistan has already had a love-hate kind of relationship with the US during the Obama administration, with the US resistance in providing Coalition Support Fund (CSF), the conflict in purchase of F16 fighter jets and Pakistan’s efforts to become a member of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Not to forget that US drone strike in Pakistani territory killing Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour in May last year had further deteriorated relations.
The US had continuously been asking Pakistan to take action against the Haqqani network and eliminate terrorists without discriminating between ‘good and bad’ but Pakistan has not been able to impress the superpower for its efforts in the war against terrorism. The US congressmen in a meeting on 11 July 2016 titled ‘Pakistan: Friend or Foe in the Fight against Terrorism?’ also slammed Pakistan, calling it a ‘state sponsor of terror’ and demanded to impose economic sanctions on Pakistan if it did not eliminate alleged terrorist safe havens from its territory.
Furthermore, the allegations by Afghanistan that Pakistan was aware of, and aided and abetted, terrorists involved in recent attacks in Afghanistan has also raised questions. Though Foreign Office Spokesperson Nafees Zakaria on Thursdaydenied Afghan government’s allegations about Pakistani involvement in terrorism on its soil, it still cannot assure the world of Pakistan as a terrorism-free country.
Hence, having closer diplomatic ties with India, the graph of US-Pakistan friendship was seen taking a downward trajectory. All eyes are now on what kind of a diplomatic relation the country can build with the US during Trump’s presidency.
Trump’s Defense Secretary James Mattishas already asked Pakistan to ‘do more’ and has intended to work with the State Department and Congress to incentivise Pakistan’s cooperation on issues critical to US national interests and the region’s security, with focus on Pakistan’s need to expel or neutralise externally-focused militant groups that operate within its borders.
DNA talked to former Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri about the likely influence and impact of Trump’s presidency on the Pak-US relationship.
“The US relation with Pakistan during Trump’s administration will not get worse if not better. 2011 was the worst year for Pak-US relationship as Democrats had a clear policy against Osama bin Laden. However, the relations with US during Trump presidency will not be that bad, the US policy is expected to change,” Kasuri said.
“Trump does not have much interest in international relations. The four generals appointed by Trump will advise him on his policy towards Pakistan and Afghanistan as National Security Adviser General Michael Flynn and Defense Secretary James Mattis have served in the region and know it well. They know the challenges facing Pakistan.”
Earlier, the media and politicians in Pakistan only focused on propaganda, now there will be linkages that are thoughtful and based on knowledge and not on rhetoric and sentiment, he said. There will be a rational policy and the relations will get slightly better but it still cannot be guaranteed as Trump is very unpredictable, the former foreign minister said.
Trump has already destroyed his military base by his comments on NATO. He wants to partner with developed economies, he is more inclined towards China. Although apparently, India is a great strategic ally of America but India can face more loss than Pakistan if Trump culls free trade, he further said.
Kasuri was of the view that the US would need Pakistan to withdraw itself from Afghanistan while Pakistan would need to adopt a policy of better border management with Afghanistan and that it wants to restore peace in its neighbouring country.
Trump’s commitment is not in keeping troops in Afghanistan and defeating the Taliban. He believes the US is over-extended in wars, but relations with Pakistan have definitely downgraded, Amir further said
The US will never treat Pakistan the way it did Iran as we are an advanced nuclear power, Kasuri said, and added the only pressure US can exert on Pakistan will be regarding Afghanistan. Pakistan has a role with China and Russia in the new Afghan dispensation process. Trump wants better relations with China and Russia and they both are more afraid of the so called Islamic State than Taliban. Trump will understand this situation easily as he is not very ideological, Kasuri added.
Trump also expressed his willingness to play a role in addressing and finding solutions to the outstanding problems with Pakistan during his telephonic conversation with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on 30 November that made headlines all around the world. According to a foreign office statement, Trump also said that he would “love to come to a fantastic country, fantastic place of fantastic people”.
“Trump doesn’t know much about Pakistan. He is unfamiliar with this territory. Also, Trump is against America’s foreign involvement,” said senior analyst Ayaz Amir while talking toDNA.
Our relationship with the US depends more on Afghanistan and their terrorism concerns and we don’t know what Trump says about Afghanistan; but apparently, he does not have much interest in this region, the analyst added.
Trump’scommitment is not in keeping troops in Afghanistan and defeating the Taliban. He believes the US is over-extended in wars, but relations with Pakistan have definitely downgraded, Amir further said. However, Trump’s National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, the analyst said, has interest in Afghanistan as he had been the central command commander.
When asked if they are going to deal with Pakistan the way they did with Iran, Amir said, “US has a separate thing with Iran. It is never going to deal with Pakistan the way it did with Iran. US is Pakistan’s primary trade partner. We take money from them. It still gives us $700-800 million for support.”
All Pakistan can hope for is better ties with the US with Trump taking office, as strong bilateral relations between the two countries are in favour of both while Pakistan also needs to address the concerns previous US administration had regarding ‘sponsoring terrorism’ and taking indiscriminate action against terror outfits.
Trump has already expressed the hope that bilateral ties between the US and Pakistan would improve in the future, as apprised by Pakistan’s ambassador to the US, Jalil Abbas Jilanion Friday. It is to see how practically Trump sticks to this ‘hope’ and what course of action he adopts towards this region that has its own geostrategic significance.
Pakistan, on the other hand, should start working on strengthening its diplomacy and foreign policy, and address the ‘do more’ demand of US.