The new wine in an old bottle
“The US policies being primarily interest based make Trump nothing more than a new wine in the same old bottle”
With his unprecedented victory and election as the 45thpresident of the United States, Donald Trump, the multi-billionaire businessman once known for his business acumen, has already made his presence felt as the world’s most influential personality. The White House, with the oath taking ceremony conducted on Friday, now has its new custodian. People’s perceptions of Trump have emerged around the world — the word that could define the man, thus far, is unpredictable. The world looks on as Trump takes charge.
It will be interesting to see: with this new wine in the old bottle, would the White House behave any differently?
The not-so-political Trump was initially looked upon by all, particularly the Muslims, as being a hardliner, since it was a common assumption that his anti-Muslim rhetoric, which he has been using in his election campaign, will now dominate, and drive his policies. In addition to his animosity, and ill-will towards the Muslims, Trump has also been very vocal on getting tough with China, and remained a tough critic all along of the Obama administration, blaming it for not taking strict measures to discipline China, and letting it walk away with the business — and jobs — US should have hosted. The perception of Trump being a hardliner is, therefore, commonly shared across the board.
It is critical here to assess that the US policies are devised and driven by her interests rather than the will of individuals in the White House. And the Congress and analysts are of the view that the election of Trump as president instead of Hillary will not make much of a difference, particularly to Pakistan, since the US interests in the region demand a mutually benefitting alliance with Pakistan. This is an encouraging sign for Pakistan, and must be cashed in on by the government, now that the new US president is sworn in. It is imperative on part of Pakistan to remind the US of her interests in the region, and how Pakistan can aid in their prevalence. The US policies being primarily interest based make Trump nothing more than a new wine in the same old bottle.
Do-more legacy and the US wish list
As compared to perceptions about the US here in Pakistan, the perception of Pakistan back in the US as a state hosting Islamic militancy, and a breeding ground for present and future generation of terrorists is an apprehension, and a cause of great concern. This perception has kept Pakistan apart from its much deserved acknowledgement and appreciation as a front-line state in the war on terror. The false impression gained by the west as Pakistan playing an intentional double game by distinguishing between good and bad militants gave birth to the very famous US demand of do-more from Pakistan.
The do-more legacy initiated by the Bush administration has been keenly sought by the Obama administration, and is expected to be pursued with equal passion by the incoming Trump administration.
The US wish list of demands with respect to the war on terror, and its regional strategic goals from Pakistan will remain imperative for the Trump administration, and the pursuit of the latter could be more aggressive than ever. It must be noted here that the demand to do-more from the Trump administration would not be limited to the militants operating from the north western belt of Pakistan, but would also shift to groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET), and Jamaat-ud-Dawa which are major threats as per the claims of our eastern neighbour, India.
So let’s fasten our seatbelts for more on the do-more ride!
“Pakistan’s friendship with China, as always, remains a barrier in establishment of consistent Pak-US ties, and naturally pushes the US to prioritise India as its primary ally in the region. With India as a strategic US partner in the region, Pakistan could find itself in the line of fire, and must prepare itself by increasing its diplomatic outreach.”
In the line of fire
Although Pakistan has enjoyed favourable relations with the US under the Republican leadership in the White House, it appears unlikely this time around as the pressure imposed on doing more in the fight against terror by the new US administration is expected to be on a high-rise. The recent blockage of provision of F16s to Pakistan also resulted from opposition by the Republicans in Congress.
The supposed inclination of Trump towards India, and the vision shared during his election campaign to choose India as a strategic partner of the US in the region is a cause of concern for Pakistan, as the latter could result in a possible destabilisation of the nuclear armed region. With Trump in the driving seat, India’s inclusion in the Nuclear Suppliers Group could also not be ruled out, and the long standing Indian desire to isolate Pakistan from the rest of the world breathes again.
Pakistan’s friendship with China, as always, remains a barrier in the establishment of consistent Pak-US ties, and naturally pushes the US to prioritise India as its primary ally in the region.
With India as a strategic US partner in the region, Pakistan could find itself in the line of fire, and must prepare itself by increasing its diplomatic outreach.
The enlightened path ahead
Well it is needless to underline the need on both sides to understand the criticality of working together, keeping the differences apart, and moving forward in the right direction for mutual benefit, and the benefit of the region, and the World at large. The missing elements of consistency and stability in Pak-US relations must be worked on.
Pakistan, keeping all jotted perceptions on Trump, and the direction US will take under his presidency apart, must realise the gravity of strengthening ties with the US, in order to gain on socio-economic and military fronts. Pakistan must remind the new US administration of her interests in the region, and how Pakistan can assist the US in accomplishing those interests, parallel to its own. The incoming US administration must also look beyond the need of time, and focus on the long term goals in the region.
In the Trump administration lie great challenges, as well as potential opportunities for Pakistan to achieve a healthy relationship with the US which could, without a doubt, be fruitful in stabilising the region, and can prove to be a potential way forward in resolution of the long standing Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India.
The ball here, very much, is equally in the courts of both — Pakistan and the US.