China, Pakistan, and Russia highlighted their concern for the growing influence of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Afghanistan during a meeting last month hosted by Russia for the representatives from the three countries.
The three countries agreed upon “a flexible approach to remove certain [Taliban] figures from [United Nations] sanctions lists as part of efforts to foster a peaceful dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban movement.”
The three states underscored their concern “about the rising activity in the country [Afghanistan] of extremist groups, including the Afghan branch of IS [the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria]” and underlined that Taliban were a necessary bulwark in the global fight against the ISIS. The Taliban obviously welcomed the move. “It is joyous to see that the regional countries have also understood that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is a political and military force,” a statement, issued on their behalf, said.
Russia is now arguing that Afghanistan could become a safe haven for the ISIS, from where it would be able to pose a serious threat to Russian hinterland. China too remains worried about the impact of growing ISIS threat in its Xinjiang province. And both of them have found in Pakistan an important interlocutor who could perhaps manage the Taliban in a way that it would be a force against the ISIS.
Russia has an interest in hyping the threat from the ISIS in Afghanistan and it is doing so rather effectively. The Taliban remain the most potent threat to the future of Afghanistan as everyday bombings in the country attest to. But given the uncertainty over President-elect Donald Trump’s Afghanistan policy, Russia feels this is the right moment to insert itself in the region and derail whatever little progress that has been made towards stabilising Afghanistan.
India May Find Itself Isolated
As Russia works with China and Pakistan to engage Taliban, jettisoning its historic animosity to the group, India might find itself regionally isolated. The Afghan government is too weak to assert its primacy in the process. And given Trump’s soft corner for Russia, if he decides to buy into the Russian argument, then India’s Afghan policy will once again be at a crossroads.
There was once a time when the US wanted to reach out to Taliban. Despite the threat of isolation, India stuck to its stand on the group. Eventually, New Delhi’s views prevailed as the Pakistani shenanigans made sure that the so-called peace process with the Taliban did not go anywhere. Today, India once again looks isolated. It would be hoping that Washington and Kabul will heed its advice on Afghanistan and stand up strongly against the China-Pakistan-Russia axis to manipulate regional strategic realities to serve their short-term ends. But hope is not a policy, and it is possible that New Delhi may have to revisit some of the fundamental assumptions of its Afghan policy soon.