CPEC
To Pakistan, CPEC is a game changer. It will tremendously boost its economic, commercial and geo- strategic position in the region. To China, it is a vital and cost effective plank of their concept of trade “One Belt One Road”; a primary gateway for trade between China and Africa and Middle East. To USA, it is a counter stroke to their policy of Asia Pivot, aimed at containment of China and Russia because it gives access to China to the areas where at the present, USA has the hegemony. To India, it is a tranquilising dream. It will shatter their vaulting ambition of regional power or more beyond measure. To UEA, a major cut in their virtual monopoly over trade in gulf. To Iran, a serious case of ambivalence and to Afghanistan a bugbear because this is the main place from where anti CPEC schemes would be unleashed. CPEC is a project of great enterprise with huge bearing on world politics. In realpolitik, an undertaking of such proportions seldom sees smooth sailing. It is bound to encounter threats of different kind. In instant case, likely threats include some, externally instigated and some are of own creation.
The security threat to CPEC emanates mainly from Tehreek-e- Taliban Pakistan, Lashkar-e- Jhangvi, East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), Baluchistan Liberation Army, Baluchistan Liberation Front and Jundullah. It is no more a secret that RAW is actively engaged in acts of sabotage and subversion against CPEC in connection with these terrorist organizations. A special cell in RAW has been established under the instructions of Modi government with lavish financial allocation to undermine CPEC in every way possible. Sufficient reason exists that RAW also has tacit backing of US because it largely operates from Afghanistan to launch terrorist activities against Pakistan. It is needless to mention that Afghan Intelligence Agency; NDS is a pawn in their hands because of huge Indian influence on Afghan government. Its modus operandi is likely to focus on aggressive intelligence gathering, killing/kidnapping of the workforce, Physical damage, psychological warfare and terrorism. On the other hand, Indian government will intensify the situation against Pakistan by rhetoric/diplomatic offensive and aggressive movement/violence at line of control/ working boundary, air and sea. The intrusion of Indian atomic submarine in Pakistan’s maritime limits is a clear pointer. There is also no dearth of voices which sound that primarily US is present in Afghanistan to contain Chinese’s economic advance in the world and CPEC is the springboard. A big super power does not allow another aspiring big super power such luxury at such nominal price. US will definitely up the ante and Pakistan would be the playing field because CPEC passes through its length and breadth. In its wake, existing instability in Pakistan will be aggravated further. In this context, one cannot desist from having another glance over a statement of US president Obama in recent past “for even without Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant(ISIL), instability will continue for decades in parts of the world – in the Middle East, in Afghanistan and Pakistan, in parts of Central America, Africa and Asia”. It may not be a mere assessment rather a desire. Habitually, US becomes rash to get its preferences accomplished until not dealt with astute handling. It may be borne that CPEC is meant for cargo to ply around the clock. Basically money is coward and cargo is the money. The cargo does not move in a convoy under the security cover. It moves independently. In absence of assurance of security, it will refuse to travel on a truck which is uncertain to make it to the destination. The remedy lies in implementation of NAP. It had two dimensions; military and civil. The military dimension has been implemented to resounding effect but civil part is a dismal story. Conventional wisdom underlines that half measures are all pain and no gain. Until NAP is implemented in true letter and spirit, utilization of CPEC even barely would remain a distant possibility.
Threat of polarization is also taking roots in polity of the Pakistan over CPEC because of petty politics, inconceivable cloak of secrecy and lack of transparency and communication. So far nation does not know exact contours of CPEC. The provinces does not know how many projects would fall in their jurisdiction and their allied details. The change in priority of work to Eastern Route, is antagonizing Baluchistan and KPK. Reportedly, change was necessitated because of relative security concerns and inclination of Chinese companies to undertake projects along this route on BOT (build, operate, transfer) basis. Notwithstanding this, both the province blames that it is the handiwork of Nawaz government. The Punjab stands to benefit the maximum from the change and it is the electoral constituency of Nawaz Sharif. CPEC is because of seaport at Gwader and it is in Baluchistan. Major share of the windfall belongs to them. Besides, Baluchistan is the most backward, downtrodden and impoverished province. It deserve sympathy and generous support. Both aspects are the imperatives. The Baluchistan is already a hotbed of foreign intrigue and may assume new dimensions in backdrop of CPEC. We must address at priority, apprehensions being spread there by nationalist and separatist elements; with advent of CPEC, Baluch would turn into minority in their own province, on the name of development, resources of Baluchistan would be plundered and mushroom of strangers would alter their way of life. These will fuel unrest in Baluchistan further. The misgivings of smaller provinces needs to be allayed prudently before we land in minefield as of 1971 debacle which is too recent to be forgotten. Nawaz government must follow established guiding principles for such big enterprise involving federating units. Fair and diffused development integrates the people and imbalanced progress causes rift and drift. Nothing be allowed to be mistaken for want of communication gap and transperency. Elder brother shows magnanimity and Punjab is the big brother. Genuine leadership sets the gaze on next generations and routine leadership on next elections.
A debt trap is another threat which looms large. Our foreign debt is already in the neighborhood of $ 90 Billion. Nothing is clear that how much is the FDI and how much is the loan out of $46 Billion, earmarked by the China for the CPEC. It may not prove last straw on camel back because when debt exceeds the repayment capacity of a country, its sovereignty is in jeopardy.
The concerns about functional issues are also in air. Presently CPEC’s affairs are being seen by Ministry of planning and development. In principle, Ministry is policy making body. There is a need to form an executive body or alternatively Pakistan should seek a substantive role in executive matters. Notwithstanding provision of finance by China, CPEC is in Pakistan. People from Pakistan also ought to be at driving seat. What is the share of Pakistan in employment positions at each tier and their compensation packages?. Imbalances in roles/ workforce, unfair handling and disparity in wages/benefits soon become bone of contention. This can cause serious damage to CPEC if grow in magnitude and character.