How will 2017 be for Pakistan?

Speculations abound

So, the year 2016 has ended with both positive and negative notes. On the positive side, we have succeeded, to some extent, in “breaking the backs” of terrorist organisations operating within the country. Karachi operation has been going, and is still moving at a fast pace, giving a semblance of peace and security in the city. CPEC has actually started, and as stated by the Minister of Planning Commission, more than $35 billion worth projects have been started. Roads and infrastructure is in the construction-phase; energy projects are moving as per schedule; democratic phase has entered its maturity stage though with serious problems. In Economy, the capital market is on a path of progress, and paying back huge profits for the investors; foreign exchange reserves are on a “safer-levels”; and many new companies, particularly in the auto sector, are looking to invest in the country. On Foreign policy front, Pakistan is recalibrating its foreign policy, with particular reference to Russia. The relations with China and Turkey are moving towards ‘strategic level’.

On the negative side, the ‘structural’ problems in the economy are still casting a shadow on the future prosperity; the terrorist organisations are still a threat for the internal peace; social service sector is in doldrums; agriculture sector has not picked up. On the external side, Pakistan and India are not on talking terms, Afghanistan is unstable, US-India-Iran nexus a limiting factor for the success of CPEC. Now the question is: How 2017 would be? Will the New Year prove to be really worth of ‘Happy new Year’?  By putting two and two together, one can predict the future to some extent, provided the contingent factors remain same, or at least not diverse as wide as to affect the complete scenario of politics.

The present government of PML-N has entered the final year of its governance. Amidst the Panama crisis, Lock down threats of PTI, and civil-military issues; the government has successfully managed to keep their governance train from any serious accidents. Now, the Panama issue would not be a problem for the government, at least for the continuation of the democratic process in this year. The basis of the prediction are based on two factors:

1) PTI has failed to provide any concrete evidences against the Sharif family in the Apex court, and the judiciary would not take a “Gilani-like” action only on the basis of perceptions and point scoring (with no evidences).

2) This will be the “transition-period” for the democratic order as the elections are likely to be held in 2018.

It implies: All political parties will work on election campaigns than uniting for packing the government. And more importantly, people would want to judge the parties on the basis of their performance post 2013 – PPP will be judged on their performance in Sindh; PTI on KP; PML-N on Punjab and Baluchistan. And their performances will affect the future prospects of the left-over political parties.

On terrorism, there seems to be the continuation of the counter-terror framework as mentioned in NAP. Despite the changes in the command structures of the military, the operation policies will remain the same; Karachi operation will enter its conclusion phase; counter-terror operations will continue in the Northern belt. Two factors are responsible for this continuance.

1) NAP was decided by the civilian stake-holders in coordination with the military.

2) Terrorism is still a threat for the internal peace, particularly with reference to the success of CPEC. When CPEC depends on internal peace, no government can afford to ignore the threat-level. To put it in other words, China’s investments are contingent on Pakistan’s success in its counter-terrorism efforts. However, there will be some tactical change, particularly in Karachi operation. The ‘Terrorism-Corruption’ doctrine, as espoused by Gen(R) Raheel Sharif will be re-evaluated and recalibrated.

Two changes at the state level are responsible for it:

1) the change of military command.

2) political opposition to the doctrine, and the general critique by the intelligentsia – there is a general opinion that linking terrorism with corruption would disturb the civil-military balance, as corruption is not to be looked by the military but by the accountability institutions.

At the foreign affairs, two changes will take place in the US and India. Trump will take over the reins of government on Jan 20^th, and India also would enter into the final years of its democratic tenure. In the case of US, two things are important for Pakistan.

1) Donald Trump is a nationalist, and he will protect American interests under the framework of “Make America Great Again”. It can have two implications on Pakistan. One, there can be commonalities of interests in the areas of economics. Like all businessman, trump would prefer economic relations over “no-relations”. And Pakistan, under Nawaz Sharif, can be a good destination for American investments, particularly after the connectivity and regional linkages, and availability of energy.

2) Trump will have a strong influence over India. Given India’s closeness with the US, particularly after 2008, Trump can influence the Modi’s policy of hostility with Pakistan. In the case of India, it is going into the elections in 2019. And given the dwindling popularity of Modi, particularly after the currency reforms, he would adopt a more belligerent posture towards Pakistan to keep his constituencies united behind him for the next elections.

In this respect, there seems to be a repetition in the nature of Pak-India relations, unless Trump interferes. Lastly, Russia-Pakistan-China-Turkey nexus would have further impetus, with the changing scenarios in the US policy under Trump. Russia and Turkey established their leadership in the Middle East through successfully managing the Syrian crisis. Pakistan and China are working to make CPEC a success at any cost. The commonalities of interests, linkages of economic interests, and a unity of narratives on international issues will bring these countries more closely. The future of Asia will be determined by Russia, China and Turkey. And India would ultimately have no options but to inter-link itself with the economic initiatives under CPEC to expand its economic base.