The US-Afghan-Indian collusion

USA’s three pronged approach is only benefitting it in the long run

Notwithstanding the relentless and sincere efforts by Pakistan to maintain smooth strategic relations with US and to build bonhomie with Afghanistan and India to promote peace and stability in the region, the response of these three countries is very discouraging and tinged with animosity. The US, it seems, is deliberately fomenting instability in the region to achieve its strategic objectives – similar to what it has done in the Middle East and other parts of the world to redraw the world map in conformity with its own contrived world view. It is using both Afghanistan and India for the purpose, both of whom have their own reasons to be part of the US led power-game in the region, while remaining oblivious to the long term consequences for them as well as the entire region.

The US is propping up India as a regional super power with the explicit aim of checking the burgeoning influence of China – both in the region and beyond. India is willingly supporting the US’s anti-China policy in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. The civil nuclear deal with India by US and its allies like UK and France, the support for a UNSC seat for India, designating India as major defence partner and the likely production of F-16 and F-18 fighter planes in India as proposed by their manufacturers and cleared by the Pentagon, are the rewards for India for doing US bidding in the region. These measures also not only put India at an advantageous position viz-a-viz Pakistan but also encourage her to adopt hostile posture towards her. The US tilt and support for India also fits well into the Indian designs to establish its hegemony in the region. That also explains US indifference to the tragedy unfolding in Kashmir, continued acts of aggression along LOC and Indian sponsored acts of terrorism in Pakistan.

The Indian-Afghan nexus displayed at the Heart of Asia Conference where both the Indian Prime Minister and the Afghan President castigated Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism in the region and support to Taliban for carrying out acts of terrorism in Afghanistan respectively were part of the well thought strategy, conforming to the objectives of the collusion between US, India and Afghanistan.

This tripartite collusion to malign Pakistan and to keep the situation fluid in the region, notwithstanding sincere efforts on part of Pakistan to promote Afghan-owned reconciliation and indiscriminate action against all the terrorist outfits based in North Waziristan, is absolutely unwarranted. It was the Afghan intelligence NDS which actually scuttled the quadrilateral initiative by revealing information about the death of Mullah Umar.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s allegations regarding sanctuaries of Haqqani network in Pakistan is in line with what the US has been saying repeatedly. Deputy Spokesperson of the State department after a meeting between special assistant to Prime Minister Tariq Fatemi and Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington on 8 December said” We have consistently expressed our concern to the highest level of government of Pakistan about their continued tolerance for Afghan Taliban groups such as Haqqani network operating from Pakistan soil” Whereas the ground reality is that all militant groups based in North Waziristan have been uprooted and most of them have crossed over to Afghanistan to their old abodes, from where they continue to operate. Foreign Secretary in an interview with the national TV channel unequivocally rejected these allegations saying that the members of Haqqani network were living in Afghanistan adding that the India-Afghan nexus was harmful for the region. The ranting testimony of Haqqani’s presently operating from the Afghan soil is the killing of eight leaders of the network by US and Afghan forces since July and the arrest of Anas Haqqani in Khost province.

What else does Pakistan need to do to counter the allegations that are repeatedly hurled at it? The fact is that nothing will help in this regard as the architects of the anti-Pakistan collusion are not prepared to listen. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is a puppet of the US who has not standing of his own in the country and the Afghan Army cannot withstand the Taliban onslaught in case the US pulls out. The economy of Afghanistan is also largely dependent on the US assistance to the tune of 50 billion annually. He therefore cannot be blamed for what he is doing without thinking about the consequences.

The US initiative to revive trilateral mechanism between US, India and Afghanistan as announced by the US Secretary of State John Kerry during his last visit to India, was a calculated attempt by US to keep Pakistan out of the loop in regards to finding solution to the Afghan conundrum. The Taliban reportedly are in contact with both the Afghan government and the US. But the attempts to keep Pakistan out of the equation are not going to help. It is a perfect recipe for instability in the region which US ostensibly is trying to orchestrate.

The Indian and Afghan leaders need to realise that by acting as agents of the US in the region they were jeopardising peace and stability not only in the region but also within their own countries. The unending Indian hostility towards Pakistan and posturing as a war-like state will hurt India more than any other country. It is a region where India has two nuclear states as its neighbours. Connivance with a third power against the interests of both these countries will surely have a boomerang effect. Peace, security and economic progress are not possible without bonhomie with one’s neighbours. Therefore Indian leaders must keep it in mind. Afghan leader Ashraf Ghani also needs to understand that the real life-line for Afghanistan was Pakistan and nobody could change the geographical and historic realities.

Pakistan needs to recalibrate its foreign policy in view of the unfolding realities. Focus on building regional linkages being pursued by the present government is a right strategy which needs to be vigorously pursued. The fight against terrorist outfits must not only be taken to its logical conclusion but efforts should also be stepped up to make the world to accept their credibility. A well conceived diplomatic and media offensive also needs to be mounted on the international level to unravel the real face of India and countering its propaganda. Perhaps a tougher response to machinations of India and Afghanistan could also help under the circumstances. Apart from the foregoing, Pakistan needs internal unity to ward off the dangers lurking on the horizon. The political leadership needs to ponder collectively on the responses required to deal with security challenges in the region. Politicking can wait for better times.