Back to basics?
The very common answer which one hears while talking to a committed PPP voter is that “I support the PPP because of Benazir or her father rather than the current leadership.”
Over the last one decade, the loss of the Pakistan’s Peoples party’s (PPP) overall voter constituency has literally placed the party in an isolation phase. Besides some die-hard ideological cadres based in Sindh’s rural districts and some urban areas, the party has virtually vanished from the national political arena.
In a nutshell, the downfall of the party began when PPP’s leadership moved away from Bhutoo family: while the Zardari era will always be remembered as the time that defined political incompetence and corruption, it will also be remembered as an era when the party itself destroyed its national support which the previous leadership had been able to build through populist appeal and sacrifice. Asif Zardari, just days after Benazir was buried, told hundreds of grieving party workers that, “We will not only put the PPP in the prime minister’s house but portraits of the PPP leader will also hang in the presidency.” While the death of Benazir helped Zardari in his political ambitions, he destroyed the party’s future by conveniently allowing number of other political parties, particularly the PTI, to make place in the mainstream politics on his party’s expense. Part of this became possible when Zardari brought in his own team of loyalists which were not committed workers of the party. This phenomenon consequently alienated the party’s workers and voters alike.
The very common answer which one hears while talking to a committed PPP voter is that “I support the PPP because of Benazir or her father rather than the current leadership.” If one is to gauge political maneuverings of Zardari, it becomes apparent that the party’s defecto chief also realises that it’s unlikely that his party can restore its ruined stature of a national party in the foreseeable future.
Particularly in Punjab, the PPP’s modest support base which has either gone to PTI or PML-N is not likely to return even with the coining of Bilawal Bhutto. The objective behind brining Bilawal as the front of the party was meant to appeal to the party’s traditional support base all across Pakistan. However, one important aspect which the party’s leadership continues to ignore is the rapidly changing dynamics of rural and urban voting: millions of young voters do not feel PPP’s traditional message of victimhood which the party has long associated itself with. Compounding this situation is the bad governance and incompetence which continues to stem even from the constituencies that rest next to the leaderships head quarters in Sindh.
Like PTI, the PPP’s leadership faces the same dilemma: how to shatter the PML-N’s vote bank in Punjab and that too when the election year is around the corner. As of now, it’s clear that PML-N will not lose any support as far as Punjab is concerned; infect, on the other hand, it may make some space into the both parties voter base for the PPP and PTI’s failed appeal in Punjab will further push away majority of workers in the next few months.
In the coming weeks and months, the PPP’s leadership will engage in more active politics in Punjab. Infect from last few months, the party’s leadership is attempting to give an impression that it still belongs to Punjab; however, the ground realties speak otherwise: number of by-elections that were held in various constituencies in Punjab were either won by PML-N or PTI with PPP simply finding place at the bottom.
If one is to gauge political maneuverings of Zardari, it becomes apparent that the party’s defecto chief also realises that it’s unlikely that his party can restore its ruined stature of a national party in the foreseeable future.
A few days ago, Bilawal gave a statement saying that he will become the prime minister of Pakistan in the next general elections. The statement can be looked at as an attempt aimed at furthering the political career of Bilawal for its evident that even the party’s core leadership knows that when it comes to the next general elections, PPP has no chance of winning the prime minister house. However, it doesn’t mean that the party cannot jump back in the next one decade. Perhaps, the PPP is preparing Bilawal for the election that comes after 2018 by grooming him as the true and sole leader of the party. The change of the PPP’s Punjab provincial leadership is also a first positive step towards the long road of revival: Kamar Zaman Kaira is one of the diehard PPP workers who have stood with the party through thick and thin unlike some of the leadership that was active in Punjab during the PPP’s last stunt in prime minister house. Kaira’s first challenge remains with whether he can win back the PPP’s traditional support base in Punjab.
One thing which PPP’s leadership, including Bilawal, should forget is that no one will support any radical rhetoric that propelled the party into prominence in Punjab during Bhutto’s time. Unless PPP bids farewell to its traditional message of victimhood and adapts to new realties where effective governance is regarded, the passage towards the prime minister house will further narrow.
