And the three wrongs
Sunday’s Heart of Asia Conference was a disaster for the initiative that Pakistan government had taken at the risk of great political costs domestically. Indian Prime Minister and Afghan President seemed to have come determined to the conference not let go the opportunity to take a dig at Pakistan. But they did let go the opportunity which could have helped in trust-building among the three most important states as far as peace and stability in the three countries, and in the region at large, are concerned.
The treatment meted out to Pakistan representative and Pakistan bashing by the two leaders didn’t serve the purposes and goals for the future as stated at No 6 and 7 of the 33-point Joint Statement issued at the end of Amritsar Conference; ‘a commitment to the resolution of differences peacefully’, and ‘the need for advancing regional cooperation as an effective means to address common challenges and promote security, stability and socio-economic development in the HoA region’.
At best, both the leaders gave vent to the frustration and anger of the past. But, even if justified from their respective points of view, will that help bringing the destination any closer? If not, then what’s the way forward?
At the moment all the three countries have adopted belligerent attitudes towards each other. They seem to believe that only a hard stance can bring desired changes in the policies of the other. But that may not work. Even if they do, such stances normally deliver slowly and at a very high cost that can be avoided otherwise.
What is needed right now is to appreciate each other’s problems and show patience for the desired results. If Afghanistan expects that wrongs done over a long period of time can be fixed and terrorism will be vanished overnight, it is bound to be disappointed. Likewise, if Pakistan wishes Afghanistan to keep silent and turn a smiling face despite the continuing violence on its soil, that will be too much. The story of Pak-India relationship doesn’t need recalling to make the two countries understand that historical disputes can’t be just wished away.
It is clear that the old policies haven’t worked. So, along with ‘appreciation’ and ‘patience’, Pakistan, Afghanistan and India need to show flexibility in their attitudes and change in their decades old policies. These are changed times which require a re-evaluation of the failed policies. Kashmir dispute can’t be solved through war. So, what’s the fun in living in a war-like situation forever? Afghanistan can’t bypass Pakistan if peace and stability are the ultimate objectives. So, why add India as a destabilising factor to the already unstable Afghan situation?
Same goes for Pakistan. Afghanistan can’t be its undeclared 5th province to provide it strategic depth. That thinking belongs to the bygone century. Much water has passed under the bridges. So, what’s the fun in sticking to policies that seem stuck in time?
It’s for the governments of India and Afghanistan to assess what changes are required in their respective policies towards Pakistan. But this fact should be clear to them that change for the better can only be reciprocal. Second, they should keenly observe the gradual change of heart inside Pakistan and the march of this country from big to bigger targets in its war against terrorism. It has done things which were unthinkable yesterday.
Third, the previous initiatives on Afghanistan that were taken by Pakistan soon after the inauguration of Ashraf Ghani as President were led by military establishment (it’s another matter that Ashraf Ghani attached such unrealistic hopes to it which couldn’t be attained; hence, the disappointment). That was a hint to the change that was taking place within the army regarding Afghanistan. But when the result didn’t match the Afghan leadership’s expectations – and didn’t come as quickly – the country adopted a hostile posturing that was opposed by many keeping in view the negative implications for peace in Afghanistan and the region as well as the unfriendly change that it would evoke on the Pakistani side that it could bring.
And here we stand now.
Afghanistan is making the same mistake regarding yet another historical change that is coming its way from Pakistan. Leadership in both India and Afghanistan must realise that the government led by Nawaz Sharif is trying to take charge of foreign and security matters back from the military establishment. The decision to send Sartaj Aziz was a great political risk domestically. Yet it wasn’t reciprocated; nor its significance realised.
It’s not difficult to understand that civilian-led foreign policy can be friendly and beneficial for Afghanistan. As pointed out, there were already friendly overtures from the army when Gen Raheel Sharif acted like foreign minster and visited Afghanistan so uncharacteristically frequently when Ashraf Ghani became President. A successful outcome of the civilian-led initiative on Afghanistan (and may be, India) – which may not be to the ‘complete’ liking of the army internally – can strengthen the hands of civilian government and lead to more positive changes in the country’s internal and external policies.
Having said that, it is imperative for the policy-makers here to realise that; a) the world cannot wait forever to see the right moment arrive in Pakistan and see it going the whole hog in its war against terrorism, b) terrorism is an offshoot of extremism which can’t be separated, c) doing so and as soon as possible is in its own interests, d) there is a dire need to revisit and review its security and foreign policies, e) if it doesn’t do it quickly, the non-state actors may do something which can threaten its own survival; the specter of internal threat turning existential in reality.
Pakistan must come out of its zero-sum approach in the conduct of it foreign policy, especially towards India, Afghanistan and USA. It must also not abandon its current efforts of pursuing peace and stability through diplomacy despite the treatment meted out to its representative in Amritsar.
Pakistan’s participation in the conference in India, despite tense relations between the two and a volatile situation on LoC, has already achieved its purpose; it has sent out clear signals of a changed external policy of a country desirous of resolving issues peacefully. If continued in all earnest, it will go a long way in achieving internal stability and prosperity as well as contributing to regional security.