The CPEC miracle

Moving from blueprint to implementation

Iran, Turkey and several central Asian states have already shown willingness to indirectly join CPEC, which has the capacity to facilitate foreign investors from various countries

While the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is fast moving from blueprints and designs into full implementation phase, Pakistan has caught world focus too. The operationalisation of Gwadar Port, with the first trade consignment leaving the port for Africa, Middle East and Europe on 13 November, has left friends and foes shocked and inspired equally.

Some countries, however, have jumped into the fray to join the CPEC bandwagon, leaving behind all the fears and questions being raised about the project. The latest addition to CPEC club is Great Britain — the first ever western state expressing eagerness to join the project.

Given the geo-strategic location of Gwadar Deep Seaport and its capacity to handle more cargoes than any other port in the world, the day is not far when it would emerge as the busiest port and hub of world’s trade activities.

Iran, Turkey and several central Asian states have already shown willingness to indirectly join CPEC, which has the capacity to facilitate foreign investors from various countries. The idea behind massive investment in the industry being planned along the CPEC route is allowing many big brands to benefit from the cheapest skilled and unskilled labour and financial incentives being offered by Pakistan for investors interested in the free economic zones.

While Chinese ambassador Sun Weidong describes CPEC as “one corridor with multiple passages”, the reality about CPEC is that it has totally transformed Pakistan into a hot destination for direct foreign investment.

With the operationisation of the Gwadar Port, bilateral trade would also see an unprecedented hike. China-Pakistan trade has reached to US$14 billion during the first three quarters of current year and more projects are being signed by Pakistani and Chinese companies. CPEC also aims at reviving the old Silk Route and this will open up new areas of progress for the entire region. Pakistan is perfectly placed as a linchpin to the operationalisation of the Silk Route.

With CPEC being operational, the ancient silk route would transform into connectivity, industrial cooperation, trade, business and flow of information and the peoples.

In past, though, successive regimes failed to capitalise on the strategic location enjoyed by Pakistan while the country had been demonised by the mainstream media which has been playing on the tone set by the west.

Though CPEC, involving numerous projects of energy, transport infrastructure, free economic and industrial zones, information technology parks and many others, is likely to be fully in place by year 2030, but trade traffic has started using the existing infrastructure which is quite capable to cater to the slow pace of trade. Seventeen early harvest projects, worth $13.8 billion, under the CPEC are set to be fully operational by year 2018.

The arrest of several intelligence operatives from the coastal areas of Balochistan has already hinted at the challenges Pakistan faces in securing CPEC

The good news is that the projects under CPEC including energy, coal, hydel, wind, solar, LNG as well as transmission lines are on track. Besides, infrastructure projects including road, rail, aviation and data connectivity are also being pursued simultaneously on fast track basis.

But China has not held itself back waiting for CPEC completion. China, on 31 November, opened Kunming-Karachi trade route by launching a direct rail and sea freight service, as the first cargo train departing from Yunnan, an inland province in southwest China. The service is a part of China’s Maritime Silk Road initiative of which the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project (CPEC) is an extension.

A cargo train loaded with 500 tonnes of commodities left Kunming, capital of Yunnan, for the port city of Guangzhou from where the cargo will be loaded on ships and transported to Karachi, marking the opening of the new route. This route is believed to reduce the transport cost by over 50 percent.

CPEC has changed the negative security narrative about Pakistan into an exceedingly positive economic narrative. The successful implementation of the projects under the CPEC umbrella is a manifestation of the strong and time-tested friendship between China and Pakistan. The success of CPEC has been substantiated by the massive and further expanding foreign investment in Pakistan. There is a compelling reason for international investors to come to Pakistan because of the success of CPEC initiatives.

Experts normally confuse CPEC. Most commentators however are aware of the fact that CPEC itself is just a pilot project of the One Belt and One Road initiative launched by visionary leader of China, President Xi Jinping. The Belt and Road initiative aims at connecting China and Pakistan with central Asia, Middle East, Africa and Europe.

CPEC’s operationalisation would make its own contribution to reviving the great Silk Road spirit of China.

But one must be clear that the belt and road initiative is not aimed by China at global domination though it is going to change the status quo in the region. This is also a plan to provide China a direct and short trade route to link with a deep Seaport in the warm waters and to reach out to the energy rich Middle East states, bypassing hostile neighbours like India, Japan and rivals like the United States of America.

This leapfrog has enabled China to bypass the US ambition of global control over shipping lanes. US warships have been issuing signals to the Chinese trade ambitions by their strong presence in the South China Sea. Moreover, the US has been provoking its key allies in the region to raise claims against Chinese claims of sovereignty in the South China Sea with an objective to help contain China’s growing trade.

CPEC would also allow China to sidestep India’s ambitions to control the Indian Ocean. The growing tension between China and India and the hostility over Pakistani and Indian borders explains why CPEC is so strongly opposed by India.

Failing to contain Pakistan, India now has been making efforts to aid and arm Baloch and Sindhi nationalists to target CPEC. Though the Pakistan army has claimed major success against insurgent and terrorist groups, there is a lot to be done to neutralise the threat.

Apart from arming the insurgents, India has also been active in provoking political forces to raise questions against CPEC. But the pro-India political forces are not only to be blamed and rather the federal government has also played its part to cement the dissenting voices by keeping all eggs in its own basket when it comes to the benefits of CPEC.

The hegemonic designs of the ruling family can be gauged by the fact that almost all the mega projects under CPEC have been kept under wraps and tenders have been single-handedly managed by them.

If energy projects were managed by Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, the infrastructure projects were managed by the daughter of the prime minister. Moreover, the three provincial governments other than Punjab have never been taken into confidence over CPEC projects, underpinning the suspicion and discord.

The army’s support is, however, a good omen. The army is not only promising security to CPEC projects as well as the Chinese companies and individuals involved with the game-changing initiative, its support also guarantees stability and continuity in policy.

However, CPEC also faces impediments due to bureaucratic red tape and political discord. Moreover, there is a dire need to ensure that the people of Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit Baltistan and Sindh must benefit from the CPEC related projects.

Balochistan, which has suffered badly due to the neglect by past regimes, must be the major beneficiary of CPEC. Though the development projects in Gwadar, including Gwadar East Bay Expressway; New Gwadar International Airport; Necessary facilities of fresh water treatment, supply and distribution; Technical and Vocational Institute; Pak-China Friendship Hospital; Development of Free Zone and Gwadar Smart Port City Master Plan would largely benefit the people of the port city and other coastal areas of Makran, the fruits of Gwadar should reach other parts of Balochistan too.

Besides ensuring fruits of development to the people of Balochistan, Pakistan needs to shift its focus towards securing its coastal as well as the bordering areas alongside Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The arrest of several intelligence operatives from the coastal areas of Balochistan has already hinted at the challenges Pakistan faces in securing CPEC. There have been differences between the civilian and military leadership over the raising of the Special Security Division (SSD) meant for providing foolproof security to CPEC related projects and individuals. The Frontier Works Organisation, which is engaged with road projects in Balochistan, has already lost 44 men, including 26 soldiers, in the province in security-related incidents. With the new army chief taking over, it is hoped that these differences would be over soon. Since the new army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, has rich experience of serving in the country’s northern areas, from where most of the CPEC route passes through, one can assume that the army would devise an effective strategy to deal with security related issues for the CPEC route.

Moreover, there is a need for the armed forces to shift focus to improving the capabilities of the Pakistan navy, which would have more responsibilities to provide security to the CPEC related trade in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf. Pakistan navy needs to be further strengthened in terms of provision of modern ships equipped with high-tech weaponry to ensure safe transit of shipments from Gwadar.