Census: Pakistan’s missing link

“If it is the army’s job to do everything, then what is the need for these institutions?”

According to the population census organisation, in 2011, Punjab’s total population was about 95 million out of which about 30 million people were estimated to reside in urban areas while almost 65 million people were still living in rural areas.

On November 18, the chief justice of the Supreme Court rejecting the government’s report highlighting reasons for the delay of the country’s national census. Pointing at the plethora of civil institutions, the Chief Justice in his remarks said that “If it is the army’s job to do everything, then what is the need for these institutions?”

Pakistan’s last population census was conducted in 1998 – almost 20 years ago. In the last 20 years, Pakistan has gone through a torrent of economic and security crisis and much of this has been due to a rapid rise in Pakistan’s population which has directly affected the country’s demographic realties.

States use census information in almost all aspects of public policy. The data collected through population census is essential in determining various future trends which help in formulating the country’s long and short term policies. It is important to know the population of a country for this helps the state in understating the emerging challenges in various social, economic, political and public affairs.

Moreover, among other things, the population census helps government in foreseeing rising needs of various areas and sectors for policy planning institutions cannot formulate effective policies and comprehend new challenges unless they have access to the relevant details which form the foundation of their policy making. In Pakistan’s case, formulation of educational, health, agricultural, economic and other policies on the basis of information that was relevant 20 years ago, has proven ineffective for the next decade’s policy planning cannot be carried out through the information that was effective about two decades ago.

Pakistan’s population growth has experienced a rapid acceleration in the past quarter of a century. According to the population census organisation, in 2011, Punjab’s total population was about 95 million out of which about 30 million people were estimated to reside in urban areas while almost 65 million people were still living in rural areas. The population living in Punjab’s rural areas, by and large, depends on agriculture as means of livelihood. The agriculture sector of Punjab has been under severe pressure from the last few years for the government’s current policies have clearly neglected the sector with more focus on urban based economy which too has not recorded any remarkable boost. In effect, it is because of the non-availability of information that still proves that Pakistan’s agriculture sector remains a vital source for the country’s economic growth and development.

The unchecked population boom has directly put the available economic resources under pressure: the rapid rise in the number of university graduates has clearly shriveled available jobs in the market. This has affected the youth directly for every passing graduate now dreams to settle abroad with focus on all sort of options ranging from white color to blue color jobs.

In the PML-N’s case, the Sharif brothers are not interested in any sort of changes that might affect the current legislative setup which clearly favors their chances for winning the next general elections. It’s evident that new census will surely change the contemporary electoral dynamics of Punjab in particular and any sort of demands for electoral changes might threaten the PML-N’s current electoral strength in the province.

Moreover, in a way, the non-availability of accurate information about population has had direct impact on the country’s terrorism problem. In recent years, the numbers of students registering in religious seminaries have increased manifold. This is the direct consequence of the state’s failure to comprehend newly emerging population trends where the lack of good public education in the midst of limited resources have brought in non-state actors to fill the void.

The problem has been made worse by the current government’s myopic policies that have been dominated by personal political interests rather than national interests. For instance, the population census is generally used to determine the number of inhabitants of a province and available population strength of its constituencies. The available data ensures redrawing of district boundaries and constituencies which further helps in strengthening the democratic system for adequate representative are added to the system to address the growing needs due to rising population numbers.

In the PML-N’s case, the Sharif brothers are not interested in any sort of changes that might affect the current legislative setup which clearly favors their chances for winning the next general elections. It’s evident that new census will surely change the contemporary electoral dynamics of Punjab in particular and any sort of demands for electoral changes might threaten the PML-N’s current electoral strength in the province. Moreover, the upcoming population census will surely increase the number of seats – or debate in this regard – in the parliament which might give the PTI and the PPP further space to challenge the current ruling party. Even if the population census is conducted next year, it’s unlikely that the Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s party will smoothly allow the process of redrawing of district boundaries and associated procedural changes.

The Population Census is the most comprehensive source of information on the size, distribution, living conditions, and demographic characteristics of the population. Unfortunately this marked delay has come at the cost of Pakistan’s national interests for obsolete economic, political and social realities have put the country in limbo with the size of the challenges rapidly growing and the time to address them fading with equal speed.