Pakistan’s carbon emissions to quadruple by 2030
Pakistan submitted its ‘Nationally Determined Contribution’ (NDC) in the nick of time, just one day before the 22nd Conference of Parties (COP22) commenced in Marrakech, Morocco on the 7th of November 2016. Whilst Pakistan submitted its INDC last year, it was severely criticised. As the Parties to the UNFCCC gear up to define the rulebook for the implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement of last year, experts in Pakistan weigh in on Pakistan’s performance in the climate arena.
A week before the the 22nd Conference of Parties, to be held in Marrakech between the 7th and 18th of November 2016, Pakistan’s Climate Change ministry announced a number of landmark decisions relating to the future of the country. One of these was the passing of the Pakistan Climate Change Act, under which the Pakistan Climate Change Authority would be constituted to tackle the climate challenge. Additionally, at a Civil Society event, titled ‘Framing the Pakistan Agenda for COP 22’ held on the 28th of October, 2016 at Serena Hotel Islamabad, Federal Minister Zahid Hamid revealed that not only was Pakistan readying itself to ratify the Paris Climate Agreement, but also that the Government of Pakistan would submit its Nationally Determined Contribution to the UNFCCC secretariat before COP22.
Is all of this too little too late? The Paris Agreement was ratified by the Government of Pakistan just today, on the 11th of November, becoming the 104th country to do so. Pakistan’s NDC was uploaded on the UNFCCC NDC submission portal on the 6th of November- just one day before the conference commended. As for the content of the INDC- experts have been divided.
Ghulam Rasool, Director General of the Pakistan Meteorological Department, had reservations about the current and future projections of Pakistan’s carbon emissions. In particular, he felt that ‘ Future projections of emissions seem overestimated perhaps ongoing initiatives of mass transit, green Pakistan and billion tree are not properly incorporated in terms of carbon capture.’
Arif Rahman, Climate Change Coordinator at LEAD Pakistan, agrees. Stating his reservations on the methodologies used to calculate the emissions scenarios, Arif asks ‘What are the economic growth projections based on? Emissions seem to have gone up 4-5 times in all sectors. However, what is this based on?’
Kashmala Kakakhel, a climate finance expert who is currently in Morocco, welcomed Pakistan’s submission to the UNFCCC secretariat. ‘ It states that Pakistan’s GHG emissions will increase from 405 CO2- equivalent in 2015 to 1600 in 2030. This covers energy, agriculture, transport, industrial process, forestry and waste. In order for it to reduce its emissions by 20%, Pakistan will need up to USD 40 billion at current prices.’
However, Kakakhel too has reservations similar to Rasools: ‘
While its great to see some numbers in there, it would have been even better if some effort had gone into compiling efforts Pakistan is already doing in order reduce its emissions using domestic resources. For example, the Planning Commission has a long list of renewable projects in the pipeline that could have been used to show Pakistan’s unconditional contribution to implementing the Paris Agreement. ‘
In contrast to the vague, 2 page NDc submission last year, the current 31 page NDC submitted to the secretariat the country pledged to cut its Business As Usual emissions by 20% by 2030. This however, is dependent on receiving up to USD 40 billion in aid. In the INDC, Pakistan estimates a quadrupling of its carbon emissions from 5 sectors (not including transport) from 400 million uccrently to over 1.6 billion by 2030. Even with the 20% reduction in the GHG output, its carbon emissions will still have more than tripled by 2030.
Pakistan’s NDC clearly states that an important factor taken into account is the recent Chinese investment in the infrastructure development of the country. The Government has taken many steps to ensure any impediments to the CPEC have been removed- including altering its climate policies.
Arif Rahman points out that ‘The INDC is heavily tilted towards one particular ‘Project” CPEC :all the numbers are based on the fact that they already know what will and will not happen in and as a result of CPEC’. While it is prudent to take the CPEC into account, Rahman also points out that the NDC lacks any contributions from Pakistan itself- rather, all actions are heavily dependent on external grants.
The 22nd COP, currently underway in Morocco, aims to set out the rulebook for the implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement. Governments are being pressured to complete this rulebook within 2 years. The Pakistani delegation to the COP, headed by Zahid Hamid has technically checked all the boxes to be a responsible country: submission of the NDC, ratification of the Climate Agreement, and the Pakistan Climate change Act. However, what can Pakistan do practically to leverage its position on climate change?
COP is not a place for quick wins.’ says Kakakhel ‘It is a culmination of a number of discussions that take place over the year, covering multiple issues. It set outs a policy direction for action that countries will take together, as well as at the national level. With that regard, Pakistan doesn’t necessarily have any particular key policy priorities as a country alone, and generally aligns itself with the position of G77+China.’
COP22 in general was thrown in turmoil not only by the recent election of Donald Trump, who has promised to reverse the Paris Climate Agreement, but also by the discovery that the combined NDCs of all the countries would still lead to a global temperature rise of more than 2.7 degrees. It is important for Pakistan to commit to the climate cause, regardless of whether or not it receives external grants. To an extent, the Pakistan government is doing this, with its many renewable energy projects and projects supporting carbon capture. In the current uncertain climate and state of global politics, this is the very least Pakistan can do.