Trump presidency and its impact on Pakistan

Not very heartening expectations

Today, after the sunset years of the Obama administration has thrown up an America in deep global retreat and internal political gridlock, the change is palpable but clearly not charted or even understood

 

Pakistan’s Permanent Ambassador to United Nations Dr Maleeha Lodhi stated on Wednesday that Pakistan’s interests will be safeguarded in talks of all kinds with the new US administration.

“The country’s future strategy would be evolved after seeing what would be the priorities of US’s foreign policy under Donald Trump as president,” said Lodhi.

She said that foreign policy was subordinate to national interests. “We will protect Pakistan’s interests in every kind of dialogue process with new US administration. We desire that the new US administration acknowledges Pakistan’s interests,” she added.

Lodhi was of the opinion that the US foreign policy had not been a balanced one for quite some time, and added that the Trump administration would have to pursue a balanced policy.

However, while speaking to DNA, former ambassador to United States, Husain Haqqani, said Donald Trump is clear in his recognition of India as America’s preferred partner in South Asia.

He is unlikely to accept ambivalence in Pakistan’s policy on terrorism. In any case, Pakistan needs to shut down the terrorism industry for its own sake and zero-sum games with India should be replaced with pragmatism and normalisation, said Haqqani.

“President Trump could be a partner for Pakistan in those two paradigm shifts but might prove a tough interlocutor if Pakistan wants business as usual”.

Agreeing with him, leading political analyst, lawyer and academic Yasmeen Aftab Ali said in the current scenario what is important to Pakistan is to gauge where Trump will stand not just with Pakistan but also with India owing to the complex nature of relationship between both neighbours.

The closeness between China and Pakistan will probably lead to a convergence between US and India. Since the Uri incident, India has built upon a narrative to isolate Pakistan; this may well gain impetus under Trump presidency who has vowed to come down heavily against Islamic radicalism and about creating alliances to crush ISIS.

Also, border disputes between India and China make US and India ‘natural allies’ for the region.

“He (Trump) has been very complimentary of India. How he stands with Pakistan in due course will depend largely upon how Pakistan’s role in stemming terrorism is viewed by the White House,” said Yasmeen.

America under President Trump is not going to couch his displeasure in diplomatic language. However, one does not see a drastic policy change immediately upon his stepping up.

While analysing the situation, senior PPP leader and former Pakistan’s ambassador to United States of America, Sherry Rehman said Donald Trump’s spectacular re-drawing of the electoral map of America on 11/9 has spawned more questions than answers for American global leadership in an increasingly uncertain world. Given the sharp angles of the Republican campaign, for American Muslims, blacks, women and minorities it has given rise to serial anxiety, and potentially redefined the social and cultural values that gave the United States an unrivalled edge in the projection of its soft power.

Rehman said that the land promising liberty, freedom, opportunity and equality as a beacon after World war II is now looking at its own navel for what it can offer first itself and then others, in a transformed world. Early election data, among other trends such as public discourse, indicates that the divides within America matter. They matter enough to defeat a continuity candidate such as Hillary, and they propelled a huge swathe of white Americans to push back against a pro-race, pro-woman, and pro-immigrant agenda. The final vote, including medium-term trends towards alt-right conservatism, both signal a country in the grip of a deep vein of existential fear.

Owing to the personality of Mr Trump, it is safe to say that he has the propensity to push Pakistan, as a state, to do more in certain areas where the US has a stated policy interest and to do so with unprecedented lack of diplomacy or its conventional constituents

Today, after the sunset years of the Obama administration has thrown up an America in deep global retreat and internal political gridlock, the change is palpable but clearly not charted or even understood.

Rehman added that the protests across America, and the high ratings President Obama still enjoys, tell a more complex story.

“The new American story is not only about white privilege, big money and the fear of losing jobs to off-shore call-centers to cleave a reductionist slice of the apple pie; but it is certainly a leviathan turning in its two-ocean bed with a big sneeze. As global stocks stabilise after the free-fall triggered by the trouncing of Hillary, the world is clearly worried it will catch the cold,” she said.

The first thing to note is that so far there is no foreign policy record or engagement to go by for President-elect Trump. Unlike Hillary Clinton, who came both with baggage and experience, the Trump machine has little work on record for signalling future alignments and actions except that of a singularly exclusivist electoral campaign.

Trump’s interest in developing stronger relations with India should not alarm Pakistan, but the China-ambiguity in Washington may deepen into responses the Pak-China relationship does not need.

Rehman said countering terrorism will become a hardline value for the Trump administration, if campaign talk is anything to go by, with sharper but shorter intervention by the US in the Middle East, more cooperation with Russia for joint outcomes, and bigger defence budgets.

Trump’s transition team is hard at work running up names to run America and its interests abroad. The Republican call-sheet is heavy with names from close supporters or private sector allies.

Although wild cards are the norm for cabinets, the buzz from Trump insiders suggests that Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, Jeff Sessions and perhaps Sarah Palin may well make the cut for key posts, as may either Steven Mnuchin of Goldman Sachs or Forrest Lucas of Lucas Oil for the big job of treasury secretary, with influence on the World Bank and IMF boards. Early names for secretary of state are Tennessee Senator Bob Corker, John Bolton and Newt Gingrich, with retired Lt-Gen Flynn’s name is in the ring for NSA to the White House.

Almost all point to hardline positions on South Asia and terrorism, including a dangerously narrow lens through which Pakistan may be filtered, said Rehman.

Senator Corker, for instance, heads the Foreign Relations Committee and was a key voice in blocking Pakistan’s F-16s by calling for a special hearing while seeking a terrorist state label for Pakistan.

Absent serious foreign policy focus, which stems partly from having no empowered foreign minister, the beleaguered government in Pakistan is more than likely to react with more of the strategic muddle-through it has exhibited all term. No forward-planning or substantive action drives key ministries, or a partisan-politics, media-obsessed PM House.

Unfortunately for Pakistan, with far-right governments changing the fundamentals of global and local governments all over the world, Islamabad is in no position to meet the head-on challenges of the perfect storm already hanging on its regional skyline, said Rehman.

But in a post-Brexit world, where Trump will still lead the way on new roads to engaging the world, including a likely rebalancing in South Asia, Pakistan should in no way be sanguine that the geopolitics of its frontline or its nuclear deterrent will steer it away from tougher ‘do more’ lines coming its way, she said.

While speaking about the impact on US-Pakistan relations, leading lawyer and political analyst Ali Ibrahim told DNA that we can expect less intervention in the domestic policy and affairs of our country in comparison to what a Hilary led government would do.

In general, the theme of Mr Trump’s campaign has focused on the idea of a “Fortress America” where expenditure will more likely be incurred within America, said Ibrahim adding to that end, a Trump Presidency will have a positive impact.

However, owing to the personality of Mr Trump, it is safe to say that he has the propensity to push Pakistan, as a state, to do more in certain areas where the US has a stated policy interest and to do so with unprecedented lack of diplomacy or its conventional constituents, Ibrahim added.