Time for talk to turn into action
During the election campaign, Trump has assaulted his country’s approach on the foreign policy front, targeting the US’s relations with its historic and bedrock allies in Europe, Northeast Asia and the Muslim world
The victory of Donald Trump, a real estate magnate, in the 2016 US presidential election has sent shock waves globally. To begin with, Mr Trump’s elevation as the republican presidential nominee – the most unorthodox choice the party has made in generations – was viewed as the most terrible example Republicans have made in history. Trump’s provocative and combative style, lewd remarks about women and eccentric approach of disagreeing and rejecting basic premises of diplomacy and debate have been looked at with dread and fear, not only in America but globally as well. On the other hand, Trump’s election as the 45th US president also underlines deepening divisions within American society on lines of race and religion where hate, bigotry, abuse and intolerance have been accepted as the new mainstream ideology.
During the election campaign, Trump has assaulted his country’s approach on the foreign policy front, targeting the US’s relations with its historic and bedrock allies in Europe, Northeast Asia and the Muslim world. Moreover, the campaign also highlighted Trump’s attempt to put in jeopardy the current global order led by the US by introducing a number of undiplomatic and harsh stipulations, which if followed on policy level might shake the international balance of power.
It’s very rare that a US presidential nominee has ever totally rejected his country’s global alliances irrespective of the experience in the craft of foreign relations. Previously, there have been number of presidents from both the Democratic and Republican parties that had zero or little foreign policy experience. Trump’s predecessor from Republican Party, George Bush, is known to have no foreign policy experience. Presidents Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had virtually no foreign policy, military or security experience when they took the oath of office. However, they never called that the NATO was an obsolete security organisation which needed to be disbanded, hinted at East Asian allies that they can no longer rely on Washington for security against North Korea or China, offered a black and white solution to the Middle East’s security and political problems by suggesting that the US should take out the “oil” from the region and last but not the least, didn’t propose an outright ban on Muslims entering the US or asserted without evidence that Muslim Americans are intentionally hiding militants.
There are two ways to look at Trump’s campaign rhetoric: one, he never thought that he could make this far; hence, there was no harm in lambasting the country’s foreign policy. Two, he always appealed to rising domestic economic and security challenges that he blamed on Washington establishment’s wrongheaded foreign policy. Trump’s successful appeal to voter’s highlights that majority of the American community has no love lost for the country’s foreign policy; rather, they want a president who can build the country’s economy – no matter what it takes.
Nevertheless, if the brief time period following the election results is any guide, Trump is waking up to the reality of realism where his campaign rhetoric will not find any place unless he is bent upon annihilating the existing global order and in process further dividing his own country.
Trump’s immediate foreign policy challenge comes from the rapidly rising global militant problem that he has associated with radical Islam. Thus far, the new president-elect has razed all major Muslim states with his criticism, particularly Saudi Arabia and Iran, for assisting terror in one form or the other. The most predictable action that has failed before and Trump can employ in the Middle East, is the US’s military might which is unlikely to bring any respite as far as the spread of terror is concerned. In this regard the challenge comes from Trump ability or inability to unite major stakeholders in the region to deal with the Islamic State and other militant threats. Pushing ahead with the current laid out plan of disbanding the Iran deal and holding Kingdom accountable for its alleged involvement in the 9/11 attacks will only complicate Washington’s security challenges.
In Asia, among other challenges, Trump will be interacting with countries whose local realities have frustrated the US’s military and diplomatic might. With Pakistan, the new Republican president is not likely to remain flexible for Islamabad’s policy of sheltering non-state actors for a number of foreign policy purposes. The new Republican team can employ a number of policy measures including further heightened use of drones and aid packages with complex conditions involved to force Islamabad into towing Washington’s policy line. With Trump in office, Pakistan will have to revamp its public diplomacy for New Dehli is likely to find more ears in within the new US government given the diplomatic clout it already posses in Washington.
In Asia, among other challenges, Trump will be interacting with countries whose local realities have frustrated the US’s military and diplomatic might
Besides dealing with China, Trump’s next challenge in Pakistan’s neighbourhood comes from Afghanistan and it’s unlikely that the new government in Washington will withdraw its forces or cut off economic resources from Kabul as hinted during the campaign. Any such choice will be reminiscent of Washington’s decision of withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan during the early 1990s that resulted in the country’s implosion.
Arguably, Trump’s governance challenge is going to be tougher than any previous president in the country’s recent history: he may have won the presidency by appealing to the country’s domestic challenges but he cannot resolve a number of impending economic and security issues – domestic and global – without successfully implementing a workable foreign policy plan. Unlike campaign rhetoric, from now on, Trump’s every action and statement will have real-time implications. Rest assured: when Trump’s “president-elect” honey moon is over, world and his country will be expecting action with gains and losses attached.