Whether they win or lose
Let’s forget about latest developments and casualties on the civil-military front for a while and instead see what’s happening on Irmran-Nawaz front.
Government’s actions since Thursday (Oct 27) evening against PTI workers in the twin cities and elsewhere have shown how differently it is going to handle Imran Khan’s planned lockdown of Islamabad on November 2. It is a clear departure from the past when PML (N) government tried to let the crisis posed by this particular party pass with minimum or no-use of force. Nothing from now on will resemble the past. And it will bring in different consequences, of course.
But before we go any further, some basic things should be clear in our mind.
Right to peaceful protest is a basic right of an individual or group of individuals in any democracy worth the name. It is enshrined in our constitution as well. But this right comes with certain responsibilities, the most important of which is not to impinge on the rights of others while exercising yours. So when a group says it is coming to lock down a whole city – for whatever purposes – that means it has no regard for the rights of others. This weakens the protesting party’s claim to its right of peaceful protest, to begin with.
The government has apparently decided not to let Imran Khan and Sheikh Rashid act with the kind of impunity they have been used to up till now. But these actions do not necessarily mean that Nawaz Sharif has panicked or something as some of the TV channels and analysts are trying to portray. This is a well thought-out policy when put in the larger political context and seen in the backdrop of developments that have taken place recently. All these things happening simultaneously can’t be just a coincidence.
There are reasons behind the decision to meet the threat differently this time. One is that previous experiences of going soft increased the intensity of problems for Nawaz Sharif. Second, non-use of force left the government much weaker in the end and harmed its working more. Third, adherence to higher political principles and playing by the book in the past neither paid off the government nor compelled the other party to submit to some rules of the game. Four, it hasn’t brought any change in Imran Khan’s approach to politics and how to solve political problems.
Along with these factors, there seems to be some other practical considerations at play as well which may have helped Nawaz Sharif to opt this course of action.
One among them is to break with the tradition of a democratically elected government always blackmailed with eminent fall of the capital to relatively small groups in pursuit of their demands – whether these were right or wrong. This is a historical fact that the tactic was used by different groups in the past – with or without the support and encouragement of the establishment – to besiege democratic governments whenever they tried to exercise some independence. It is also true that unless somebody at some point in time calls the bluff of the challenger head on, not only will the democratic governments keep on operating under the Sword of Damocles but some non-state actors may go beyond the government and challenge the state by capturing its capital tomorrow.
This is but what is going on with the civilian governments for a long time; millions of people voting them to power while a few thousands bringing it to its knees.
The government’s moves of disrupting the PTI’s youth convention, sealing and then unsealing Lal Haveli and sending a message that Bani Gala isn’t an out-of-bounds place by deploying law enforcing personnel around it may be legally flawed or even outrightly wrong, but they are politically indicative and strategically right from the government’s point of view. These have sent a clear message that the government doesn’t intend to go down silently or allow the capital falling without resistance or live under fear forever – whether it is from a foolhardy politician or a calculated, well-meaning establishment.
The game is full of risks and the stakes are high to unimaginable levels as any misstep can bring in devastating consequences. The camel can sit on any side with the situation ending up in Nawaz Sharif resigning as prime minister. Or the entire government going home. Or things may move in such a way that the military comes in to play the role of an arbitrator from the sidelines or it may decide to take the ultimate step of directly intervening and taking the reins in its hands, once more. But with the prospects of a bloody coup this time.
All of these consequences will be unfortunate as long as the growth of democracy in this country is concerned; the last one particularly catastrophic for the army and the country. But one thing is clear; Nov 2 protest will be the last fractious show of Imran Khan Inc and last such demonstration of his brand of non-political politics.
This may be a good news for those who are tired of the kind of political games which have kept the whole nation on the edge since long but more so after the introduction of a determined cricket player as the greatest political reformer without a knack for politics.
On the bright side is also the possibility of the civilian government emerging triumphant as the not-so-visible odds are stacked against the military to directly intervene or impose some undesirable solution of its own liking. This is despite the latest developments in the leaked story episode (Pervaiz Rasheed sacking, etc) and the apparent tilt of balance of power in military’s favor.
This, many political observers believe, can help Nawaz Sharif finally emerge as one of the most powerful political leaders of Pakistan which means less frequent political circuses in the days to come, the kind of which we are used to historically; with the establishment some time playing a role in it and political clowns performing life-threatening antics.
So, the current dispensation may survive. And the fledgling democracy may get a boost. But will there be real democracy under which we may live happily thereafter? Or will it be the start of the dictatorship of the Sharifs with a vengeance in the immediate future? Just keep your fingers crossed as Imran Khan won’t be able help us anymore beyond November 2.