It is India that is getting isolated
Perhaps the Modi administration miserably failed to comprehend the fast changing realities of Asia where China, Russia and Pakistan are coming closer to strike a balance to the new bloc emerging between the US, India and allies
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been suffering a bit of a diplomatic low lately. The “Macho man of India” is now subject to an unending diplomatic hammering for his failed bids to attain the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) status, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) membership and to turn India into the regional hegemon.
Of course, China, Pakistan and Russia stand behind these debacles. Will it affect his political strength domestically? Yes, the sequence of recent events is eroding his ornamented charm.
He should have thought a hundred times before coming up with tall claims and promises, which he once gladly flaunted to win the elections, and now they are caving in one by one.
The party of Mr Modi – Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – and its allies suffered bad defeats in the recent polls in New Delhi and Bihar. Even in one by-poll contest last year in Madhiya Pardesh, the province also called as a pillar of the Bhajpa — the ruling party lost its own seat to Congress despite extensive canvassing by the BJP’s chief minister.
On the diplomatic front, however, Modi’s government braced some initial successes – thanks to the strategic support from Washington DC as the US has picked India as its new strategic partner to contain the emerging economic giant – China. But soon afterwards, the diplomacy of Modi also underwent major impediments.
As they say, though nine-tenths of geopolitics is about bluff, the critical one-tenth is about when to fold. Perhaps Modi failed to bend when required – reflecting that inexperience is taking its toll on him since he has little or absolutely no experience in diplomacy.
A recent diplomatic gaffe made by Mr Modi has totally exposed his skills in the foreign policy domain. During his recent meeting in Goa with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of summit of the BRICS, Mr Modi remarked that “one old friend is better than the two new ones”. Mr Modi might have taken the cue in a very stupid manner from the old saying, “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”.
Possibly, Modi was saying that Russia, an old friend of India, is better than the US which is India’s new buddy. The analysts in Washington would be closely deliberating on what was bothering the Indian PM to make this statement?
Did Modi take a jibe at the Obama administration for not dancing to the Indian tunes on Kashmir; or has the US decided not to further enrage its sincere friend and partner Pakistan for India? These are the questions which the Obama administration would be pondering upon.
India’s Pakistan policy has been a major stumbling block for the Modi administration. The ambitious “isolate Pakistan” by the Indian premier has suffered a major setback. The BRICS summit brought many shocks for Mr Modi who made an attempt at enticing Russia and China for agreeing to a strong-worded resolution against Pakistan but it failed miserably.
In a strong worded closing speech, Prime Minister Modi claimed that BRICS member-states had “agreed that those who nurture, shelter, support and sponsor such forces of violence and terror, are as much a threat to us as the terrorists themselves”. Modi did not stop here and made another hard hitting remark, blaming Pakistan as “mothership of terrorists”.
However, Modi was snubbed at the summit by Chinese President Xi Jinping who hit back and suggested that the success against terrorism made it imperative to “addresses both symptoms and root causes”— a phrase often used by Pakistan for resolution of the longstanding conflict of Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK).
As if this diplomatic rebuff was insufficient, Russian President Vladimir Putin, during his speech, did not even mention terrorism – another blow for Modi and his team. Another shock was the joint communiqué of the BRICs meeting which even brought more disappointment for the Indian premier. The 109 paragraph of BRICS summit declaration did not even have a single sentence reflecting this purported consensus — not even the words “nurture”, “shelter” or “sponsor” – the tall claims Modi had made during his speech.
Worse from Modi’s prism came as the summit declaration called for action against all United Nations-designated terrorist organisations. However, there was no mention of either Lashkar-e-Taiba or Jaish-e-Mohammad – both the groups India tags as terrorist.
However, the resolution carried names of terrorist outfits of Middle East like the Islamic State and al Qaeda’s proxy Jabhat al Nusra — both threats to China and Russia but not to India.
Now add to this the United States’ blunt refusal to be drawn into harsh action against Pakistan. But Modi’s hammering did not end here. A day after Modi “mothership of terrorism” remark against Pakistan at BRICS summit in Goa, China gave him a shut-up call with its official saying in Beijing that Pakistan had given huge sacrifices to contain terrorism and the international community should respect this.
“We oppose linking terrorism with any specific ethnicity or religion. This is our long-standing position. China and Pakistan are all-weather friends,” foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying told the media.
“Everyone knows that India and Pakistan are victims of terrorism. Pakistan has made huge efforts and great sacrifices in fighting terrorism. I think the international community should respect this,” she added.
Modi’s frantic attempts to isolate Pakistan diplomatically triggered a response from Islamabad too.
One can understand that by carrying out efforts to isolate Pakistan, Prime Minister Modi was desperately trying to shift media focus from the Indian army’s brutalities in IOK for which Pakistan was the only voice which is being joined by others lately.
However, less than a month after the isolation Pakistan plan was launched, Prime Minister Modi’s campaign has been sent packing.
One can’t ignore the fact that Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) is an internationally-recognised dispute on the UN agenda, where innocent people are being killed and injured by the occupation forces daily with impunity. With around 150 innocent Kashmiris killed, thousands of youth maimed or blinded by pellet guns.
India has literally lost moral ground to even talk about counter-terrorism efforts let alone do the finger pointing. Pakistan is a victim of Indian interference and subversive activities, which are aimed at destabilising it.
Pakistan’s sacrifices in the war against terrorism are well-acknowledged and repeatedly appreciated by the world powers. India can’t brush Pakistan aside with illogical taunts and unfounded allegations. With its geostrategic location and nuclear weapons, Pakistan is a rising power which no country can ignore.
If Mr Modi really means business, he must move immediately towards normalisation by directing his security forces to end bloodshed in Kashmir, release all the Kashmiri leaders and thousands of Kashmiris taken away forcibly with their fate unknown and address the humanitarian crisis through shortage of basic amenities and the perpetrators of crimes against humanity in the IOK. Those responsible for killing and maiming Kashmiri civilians should be held accountable and the UNSC resolutions on Kashmir be implemented.
New Delhi has adopted a damage-control measure by reaching out to Pakistan and seeking resumption of people-to-people contacts. Indian Foreign Secretary Jaishankar confirmed offering an olive branch to Pakistan during a briefing held for the Indian Parliamentary Committee on External Affairs last week.
“We had been engaging with Pakistan and would do so in future. But right now, we don’t have any fixed calendar even for talks at the secretary-level. Engagement with Pakistan diplomatically in future was on the table but the date and time of any such engagement would be of New Delhi’s choosing,” Jaishankar added.
Pakistan, however, has given a cold shoulder to the olive branch offered by India and rather has made it crystal clear that any future dialogue will have to be centralised around the issue of Kashmir.
Foreign Office spokesperson in Islamabad, Nafees Zakaria, on Thursday hinted at the cold response by blaming India for violating the ceasefire twice along the Line of Control (LoC) in the Karela sector of the disputed valley.
The United Nations, too, was critical of the Modi government when a group of UN experts last week called on the government of India to immediately release human rights defender Khurram Parvez, which has rung alarm bells in New Delhi.
With these blunders at domestic and international levels, it is yet to be seen whether or not the Indian regime learns lessons from the recent blunders made by Mr Modi and his advisors. If lessons are not learnt, India may now face diplomatic isolation.
Perhaps the Modi administration miserably failed to comprehend the fast changing realities of Asia where China, Russia and Pakistan are coming closer to strike a balance to the new bloc emerging between the US, India and allies.
China and Russia are advancing towards the warm waters for better trade and economic advantages and Pakistan, with its ideal geostrategic location, is the answer. With Iran and Saudi Arabia also expressing the desire to join the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the situation is fast changing to Pakistan’s advantage.
Around 20 central Asian states have already expressed eagerness to join the economic corridors launched by Pakistan and China. Hence, it would be wise for Mr Modi to read the writing on the wall and rather than playing into hands of extremist forces, India should focus on joining this alliance for welfare of the poor of India and to attain economic autonomy.
