Democracy and economy
What if, God forbid, CPEC were to hit a wall? And, considering how we are already making potholes in its way, it is not entirely outside the realm of possibility; no matter how absurd such thoughts might sound to the more patriotic among us. Also, the Corridor is bound to add considerable burden to the already heavy debt situation, and the lag between necessary investments and eventual revenue generation is not exactly small, so the ‘game changer’ might not be as assured as the N-League would have us believe heading into election season.
The IMF, at least, is not as impressed as most people in Islamabad. And since the Fund is intricately aware of the depth of our debt, it has already started raising flags. In short, things can look good in the long term, but only if the immediate term can be managed, which will be easier said than done. Looking immediately beyond the CPEC euphoria exposes a delicate deficit. And what if there is not enough immediate fiscal room in the economy just when repayments begin? It’s not as if Brent will stay collapsed till our regional priorities are in place.
The main problem remains the inability of the economy to grow. Way back in ’13, on the last campaign trail, Nawaz Sharif promised expanding the tax net and adding value to exports to jack up revenue. He also said he’d overcome the energy crisis. None of these promises have been honoured. The result is a chronic deficit and the constant need for borrowing. This precarious situation now threatens disturb crucial CPEC cash flows. But then all political parties also promised more transparent governance and effective democracy. Yet all still revolve around families and personalities. The last few years of democracy may have worked out quite nicely for our democrats. But the fruits of their politics and economics have yet to touch most Pakistanis.
