Ceasefire violations and attempts at isolation
In his briefing to the Senate the newly appointed defence secretary provided information on increased and ‘unusual’ Indian movement along the LOC. Apart from the 58 ceasefire violations since the Uri attack an additional division of the Indian army has been placed on the LOC and a squadron of Russian SU-35’s has been brought to the forward base. These developments at the LOC combined with an incident of firing at the working boundary in Shakargarh sector suggests that India will continue intensifying such activity without any let up.
There have been multiple appeals by the international community to resolve the ongoing spat through diplomacy. India however is unwilling to come to the talking table and is unlikely to do so until after their legislative elections to be held in 2017 in important states that include Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. The BJP hence ill affords any leeway with Pakistan in terms of talks and has to keep up its increasing army pressure along the border to win the elections. Pakistan on the other hand is open to talks but only if they are meaningful and include all issues, not just terrorism.
In addition to the border incidents India continues to make attempts at isolating Pakistan. Events such as the PACES competition being hosted by Pakistan army in Lahore with participation from armies of 14 countries and Pakistan army winning competition in UK highlight India’s failure to that end. Myanmar’s leader, Aung San Suu Kyi’s, has maintained soon after the BRICS moot that what needs to be isolated is terrorism rather than countries – a clear critique of India’s isolation attempts. Therefore any isolation that Pakistan faces in terms of unfavorable relations with Afghanistan and Bangladesh or the US for example is solely our own doing.
While India will continue with its two pronged strategy Pakistan should remain steadfast on using diplomacy while remaining wary of any misadventure on the boarder – something that would unnecessarily inflame an already tense situation.