Man proposes…
It is for certain that there would not be any war between two nuclear neighbours. None of the countries who have good relations with both Pakistan and India would like the two to go beyond war of words. I am sure as snowy winter draws nearer heat on the LoC would freeze
There is never a dull moment, times are exciting, plenty of doubts too. We can measure the national scenario within the yard stick of this observation. Pakistan seems to be pregnant with eventualities of various kinds and no one can predict with certainty what will happen in the next hour in a plethora of forecasts. Recent media controversy is proof of the pudding. It has cast a shadow of doubt about the sharing of power among power centres and put a mark of interrogation on the same page mantra.
Currently the favourite past time of most of our crystal ball gazers is regarding the deteriorating relations between India and Pakistan after the Uri incident in Indian-held Kashmir and the possibility of war. Within this context most relevant is next question who will succeed army chief General Raheel Sharif when he steps down next month as per his announcement in January this year. Colourful posters carrying his huge photograph have once again mysteriously appeared in Karachi and some other parts of the country put up by “Pakistan’s well wishers” appealing to him not to step down in this hour of crisis.
Saner elements too think that this is not the opportune time for any change. There is a war like situation on the eastern border and with his agenda of eliminating terrorism incomplete, he will do go good if he reviews his decision. Experts also say that mid stream change of command has always affected adversely.
In this context one recalls fatal removal of Lt General Akthar Hussain Malik in the 1965 war when he was advancing with his troops onto Srinagar. He was not very far, he could see smoke coming out of chimneys from the Srinagar houses when Field Marshal Ayub Khan decided to replace him by his favourite General Yahya Khan who later became notoriously infamous for the breakup of the country and ignominious surrender of 90,000 troops before the Indian army.
No one explained why Yahya was made to replace a victorious commander. Later, it came to light that Ayub got scared that if General Akthar captures Srinagar, his continuation in power would be short lived. His rightist supporters said that he did right. General Akthar was an Ahmadi and he had plans to establish an Ahmadi state if he had captured Srinagar.
One believes that the border situation is such that a compulsive restraint is required in all matters of national importance. No doubt General Raheel Sharif has burnt his boat earlier when he announced that he would not accept nor seek extension in service. Any one succeeding him too would be a professional soldier who would step into shoes of a senior who would be leaving an enviable legacy.
Indeed, a principled decision. That makes his position categorically clear irrespective of the fact whether Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has or would offer him extension or not. Talk to defence and security experts, they also see it difficult for a self-respecting general to go back on his words. However, Islamabad based foreign journalists say that with just four weeks or less left for his retirement, GRS does not show from any aspect that he is going to hang his gloves that soon. At the time of the writing of the piece even close circles to the prime minister had no inkling whether giving extension to him is being considered or not.
There are other issues that are likely to impact coming events. PTI leader Imran Khan having boycotted mysteriously the joint session of the Parliament called to express national solidarity to counter Indian offensive, is determined to stage his 30 October Dharna that he says would not let Nawaz government function and would continue until his tents are packed up.
Anti-Imran political elements see in his move backing of the same invisible hand that failed to raise its finger in 2014. PML-N circles are also bothered with the future prospects of their government – will the prime minister make it through to 2018 elections or he will be shown the door earlier courtesy election commission or Supreme Court ala Panama money laundering charges. PTI sources are confident that this time umpire would come out of the closet to raise his finger after Muharram.
Last but not the least, external factors need also be considered. It is for certain that there would not be any war between two nuclear neighbours. None of the countries who have good relations with both Pakistan and India would like the two to go beyond war of words. I am sure as snowy winter draws nearer heat on the LoC would freeze. Good news is both the National Security Advisors have been communicating with each other and they agree that the border situation be defused. It seems things would improve in another week ten days time.
However, there is an element of intrigue or conspiracy — call what you may — behind all the above currents and cross currents including Indian war mongering. One can understand that moves on the chessboard in Pakistan are related to two high offices. It adds another dimension to the office of army chief in the light of our High Commissioner in Delhi Abdul Basit’s interview in which he has made it clear that it would be “incorrect“ to expect that the Pakistani army would not have a role on India-related issues. It means GRS had and whoever succeeds him would be master of foreign policy — a bone of contention between civil and military leadership.
Notwithstanding pulls and counter pulls by different power centres in Pakistan, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi too have domestic compulsions related to forthcoming elections in five states — one of them being UP where Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party is sure to win. To dilute domestic opposition and to win overwhelming support of the anti-Pakistan vote bank, heating of borders is understandable.
It seems that the situation both in Pakistan and India related to border developments — engineered by design or otherwise– aims broadly in the message that it is no time to rock the boat of the three existing players. Let them stay out of necessity. Then it is time and tide that matters in statecraft. Man proposes it is invisible power that disposes.