Dragging Pakistan into the marshes
At the end of three weeks since the infamous Uri attack on September 18, 2016 in which nineteen Indian soldiers were killed and Indian belligerence against Pakistan, Prime Minister Modi must assess his triumphs and failures.
India went berserk after the assault; its media whipped up warlike hysteria amongst its people who were baying for Pakistan’s blood since without any investigations India declared Pakistan culpable for the crime. Indian bellicosity reached such a fever that India had no option but to launch a “surgical strike” against Pakistan on September 29 to appease domestic pressure. In reality, India conducted cross LOC shelling but its DGMO went on record claiming its forces had struck four targets, eliminating “terrorists”, their launch pads and ammunition dumps. Indian lies were nailed not only by Pakistan Army, which organised a visit by local and international media to the alleged “terror camps” decimated by India; its own media and politicians too questioned the veracity of the Indian claim of surgical strikes. The UN military observers’ group also failed to find any evidence supporting the Indian claim. The US and EU refused to accept Indian assertions.
Further retaliation by India against Pakistan was to conduct more cross border shooting violating the 2003 ceasefire agreement but extremist groups like Indian ruling party, the BJP, targeted Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal by throwing ink at his face for doubting India’s “surgical strike”.
Indian columnists of the ilk of Seema Sengupta, in her Op-Ed titled ‘Wrong policy of intervention’ carried by theArab News of September 29, 2016, challenge Modi’s policy of taking potshots at Pakistan over Balochistan unrest, during his Independence Day speech, in a tit-for-tat response to Islamabad’s unflinching support for Kashmiris’ self-determination. She claims that “India’s Hindu right-wing government aims to put New Delhi’s disastrous Sri Lanka policy of 1980s — of launching military intervention in the garb of containing civil fratricide — on repeat in Baluchistan’s strategically located terrain, in order to checkmate China’s foray into the mineral-rich zone through the ambitious one-belt one-road (OBOR) project.” She reveals that a senior Indian official, who handled sensitive politico-strategic assignments during the Vajpayee regime, once told her that apart from supplying sophisticated weaponry to Baloch guerrillas operating across Pakistani-Iranian territory, the rebels were also imparted training by Indian instructors at secretive locations. Seema also discloses that a senior Indian intelligence operative informed her that the Chabahar endeavor coupled with surreptitious stoking of civil unrest in Baluchistan in a calibrated manner will ultimately ensure that Pakistan suffers from lack of economic incentive due to want of energy and other resources.
It is now time that Modi takes stock of his warmongering balance sheet and weighs his profit and loss balance sheet. After all, he is reputed to have a penchant for trading.
While trying to isolate Pakistan, India has failed to get the US to come down hard on Pakistan. In fact Indian claims of Pakistan being responsible for the Uri attack have failed to convince the US. The White House has shut down an ongoing petition that sought to designate Pakistan a state sponsor of terrorism, saying that it is doing so on suspicion of fraud as a number of signatures were bogus. This has come as a setback to the Indian effort to blackball Pakistan.
Perhaps due to Indian nudging, a separate legislation, moved in the US House of Representatives on September 20, also seeks to designate Pakistan a state sponsor of terrorist. The movers, Congressmen Ted Poe and Dana Rohrabacher, have a history of sponsoring anti-Pakistan resolutions. Most of their resolutions were defeated. The US, however close it may have moved towards India, will seek to maintain a balance with Pakistan too. It cannot chose to isolate Pakistan, which is still a transit route for US logistics for its troops in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s relevance in its influence on Afghan Taliban continues to make it a significant member of the Afghanistan-Pakistan-US-China Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) for peace in Afghanistan.
Russia, which was considered an all weather friend of India, also refused to be moved by Modi’s beseeching to call off a military war game with Pakistan in the disputed territory of Gilgit Baltistan.
Iran was cajoled to come down hard on Pakistan. India forgets that by fomenting trouble in Balochistan, it is also stirring a hornet’s nest for Iran because of the likelihood of the Baloch demanding “Greater Balochistan” comprising Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan territory. No wonder then that the Iranian President approached the Pakistani Prime Minister at the sidelines of UNGA 2016, requesting permission for Iran to join the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
India may have successfully embarrassed Pakistan by refusing to attend the SAARC Summit scheduled to be hosted by Islamabad and using its influence to keep Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka away from the moot. Pakistan could have avoided the diplomatic slight by canceling the event first.
While India was threatening to unilaterally rescind the 1960 Indus Water Treaty and block the rivers flowing into Pakistan, and was considering expediting its hydropower projects on the Indus river in order to put pressure on Pakistan, China has taken a step that will be perceived as firing warning shots for New Delhi to refrain from moving belligerently against Islamabad. China blocked a tributary of the Brahmaputra River as part of a major hydroelectric project, whose construction began in 2014. In a dispatch from Beijing, China’s Xinhua news agency reported that the blockage of a tributary of the Yarlung Zangbo River is part of China’s “most expensive” hydro project. The Brahmaputra in its upper reaches is called Yarlung Zangbo, after it originates from the Angsi glacier in western Tibet, southeast of Mount Kailash and Mansarovar Lake. It must be noted that the Brahmaputra also flows through Bangladesh and its water supply will definitely be curtailed. So much for Hasina Wajed’s Pakistan baiting!
In another related action, India which was blaming Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) for the attacks on Uri, received another setback when China extended its technical hold on India’s move to ban JeM chief Masood Azhar at the United Nations (UN). The move will hold for at least three months, and comes two days before China’s hold was set to expire. China blocked India’s call to ban the Jaish chief at the UN in April this year, after India accused the militant group and its chief of carrying out the Pathankot attack.
If Modi is pragmatic, he will weigh the pros and cons of his “fire and brimstone” policy against Pakistan and pay heed to the international community’s call to engage Pakistan in a dialogue to secure peace. Unfortunately, Modi is neither sensible nor rational. He is an active member of the extremist and Hindu nationalist organisation Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and owes his allegiance to Mohan Madhukar Bhagawat, the current RSS Chief. Modi may be the elected Prime Minister of India but he takes his diktat from the RSS head honcho Bhagawat. If Modi continues his Pakistan baiting policy to hide his domestic shortcomings and atrocities in Indian Held Kashmir, let it be understood that he is taking India on the path of self destruction. It is only hoped that he does not drag Pakistan into the quagmire too.