Way out of the confrontation

No adventurism is possible by India without the concurrence of the US

Senator Sherry Rehman, while commenting on the issue, said there were reports that backdoor diplomacy has started between Pakistan and India to normalise relations

Sporadic shelling on Pak-India border on Thursday escalated the tension between two nuclear armed rivals. Previously, cancelation of visit to regional summit, SAARC, and accusing Pakistan for the assault on the Uri army base heightened tensions between Pakistan and India.

“Increasing cross-border terrorist attacks in the region and growing interference in the internal affairs of member states by one country have created an environment that is not conducive to the successful holding of the 19th SAARC Summit,” India’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

Pakistan’s foreign ministry called India’s move “unfortunate” and said it remained committed to peace and regional cooperation. In a statement, it accused India of meddling in Pakistan’s internal matters.

Senator Sherry Rehman, while commenting on the issue, said there were reports that backdoor diplomacy has started between Pakistan and India to normalise relations. Pakistan-India tensions could lead to instability in the world. Both are atomic powers and the region cannot afford a war.

She further added that Track-II diplomacy consists of mutual steps taken for the sake of peace by mutual friends, and that India should make the first move to ease the persisting tension. Track-II diplomacy does not necessarily take place at the governmental level. India and Pakistan should solve their mutual disputes through political measures. She said world powers are also trying to normalise Pak-India relations.

Former High Commissioner of Pakistan and a veteran journalist, Wajid Shamsul Hasan, told DNA that the current scenario is grim indeed. India does not seem to want to cool down following the Uri incident. Since the disputed state is already abnormally tense, Indian forces’ trigger happy antics are leading to increased casualties by the day; further adding fuel to fire. The popular demand for United Nations to implement Security Council Resolutions for the right of self-determination seemed to have been given a new lease of life.

Pakistan, pushed into a corner by the blame game, has been trying to deflect the diplomatic offensive by its neighbour to isolate it in the international community. Pakistan’s willingness to join probe with India to find out who the culprits were has not been successful and its demand that United Nations should institute an inquiry has not seen any action yet either.

Hasan said that all the hope of speedy normalisation of relations following Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise visit to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in December last year seems to have been consigned to the archives of their foreign offices.

“I, being an optimist, had thought that whatever was happening was a seasonal affair. For many years I have noticed – irrespective of sporadic violations on the LOC — matters got heated and into the media headlines nearer to the coming winter and most of the time in September. Advent of snowfall subsequently cools down the tempers and when it becomes intense, the terrain gets literally frozen,” he said

This notion that this year too it is part of a seasonal affair got ruled out by the increasing violation of human rights. With an ultra rightist prime minister in power in India, there seems to be no let up. Apparently policy planners in Delhi feel that they can crush the local hullabaloo and get away by imposing constitutional changes that strengthen the case of disputed territory as its integral part.

Yasmeen Aftab Ali, a lawyer, academic and political analyst told DNA that Modi has been under tremendous pressure to do something very aggressive against Pakistan because he had been promising ten Pak heads for one killed Indian soldier in his election campaign. His statements to the effect are well recorded. However the rhetoric was not matched with building military capabilities against any alleged terror attack.

“I seriously disagree that this was a surgical strike. It may have been so stated to appease domestic audience. Go back a decade, each year there is this seasonal war drum beating and LoC violations are a recurrent phenomenon. With changing weather and coming snowfall, things will settle down,” she said.

The SAARC meeting fiasco was a foregone conclusion under the above scenario. Modi has to take symbolic steps to throw his weight around. India’s smaller allies had to follow suit and that too was a forgone conclusion. By doing this, all India proved was that she is the destabilising factor in the region.

She opined that BJP always carried a heavy Hindutva baggage. So much so that the BJP manifesto states, “India shall remain a natural home for persecuted Hindus and they shall be welcome to seek refuge here.” Ajit Doval’s appointment was never ceremonial and with it there was no doubt about an increased degree of Indian supported proxy war or/and terrorism in and against Pakistan.

Coming up with plausible solution towards the issue Wajid Shamsul Hassan said it is time for Pakistan to adopt a proactive foreign policy. The Simla Agreement, signed by Bhutto sahib and Mrs Indira Gandhi, accepted Kashmir as a disputed territory and they had agreed to resolve it bilaterally without prejudice to UN Security Council’s resolutions. Both need to revisit Simla now as a way out of a near war like situation. Leaders in the two countries need to show the same quality of statesmanship that led to the Simla Agreement without outside initiation. Making speeches in the UNGA or rousing hatred in public rallies by jingoism would not serve cause of peace and stability in the region.