If they don’t know what to do, they should at least know what not to do
“India’s move to cancel the treaty is an existential threat to Pakistan. It is an interruption to the right to live,” said Ahmer Bilal Soofi, the President of Research Society of International Law
In his anti-Pakistan rhetoric, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that “blood and water cannot flow together”.
Modi plans to cause an irrevocable economic loss to Pakistan by cancelling out the Indus Water Treaty — a 56-year-old agreement that outlines the distribution of water that flows through their territory.
Although India has better global influence yet this risky move by the Indian leader can cause damage to its diplomatic foreign relations and lead to a military confrontation with Pakistan.
The tensions between the two countries surfaced after the killing of Kashmir youth leader Burhan Wani and further escalated after an attack on India’s military base in Uri for which India instantly held Pakistan responsible, without providing any solid evidence.
Furthermore, Indian PM Modi announced plans to isolate Pakistan internationally and pulled out of the SAARC summit, which was scheduled to be held in Pakistan. Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan also joined India in the boycott.
With tensions rising between the two nuclear neighbours, a ‘war-like’ situation has developed.
The World Bank helped facilitate the treaty and committed to remaining neutral. Any violation of the treaty from India will give Pakistan an excuse to toughen its stance and use any method as a counterattack.
“India’s threat to revoke the treaty should be brought up on international platforms such as the United Nations to inform the world of India’s plans to cut Pakistan’s water supply,” said Hasan Askari, while talking to DNA.
The ‘war of words’ between India and Pakistan has reached its peak and both sides have adopted an aggressive approach rather than a diplomatic one.
“India can’t annul this international agreement but it will create more problems for Pakistan,” said Journalist, Zahid Hussain while talking to DNA.
“India’s move has shocked the international community and also harmed its image globally.”
Pakistan’s case is strong on the diplomatic front and it is most likely that other countries will get involved if India chooses to violate the treaty, he added.
Advisor to the prime minister on foreign affairs, Sartaj Aziz, also termed India’s attempt to block water flow into Pakistan as an ‘act of war’.
“It will provide China, for example, a justification to consider of suspension of waters of the Brahmaputra River,” he said.
Former Indus Water Commissioner Jamat Ali Shah criticised India for threatening to interrupt the supply of water into Pakistan’s Indus River, terming it “open economic terrorism.”
In the event of war, treaties are not revoked since they are based on diplomatic relations and any attempt to pull out is seen as a hostile act.
“India’s move to cancel the treaty is an existential threat to Pakistan. It is an interruption to the right to live,” said Ahmer Bilal Soofi, the President of Research Society of International Law.
“Pakistan will have the right under international law to take up any coercive measures if it opts for reprisal in case there is an attempt from the Indian side to suspend the water treaty.”
Furthermore, India has failed to isolate Pakistan and developed hostility for itself by announcing to reconsider the treaty, added Soofi.
“This act is endangering international peace and security.”
Although the sentiments for Pakistan across the border remain hostile, Modi’s policy has, nonetheless, caused outrage among the Indians too.
PM Modi’s miscalculated decision might lead to diplomatic fallout for India since it is being considered a humanitarian disaster.
In the future, there might be a possibility that India cuts down on the water supply for Pakistan to destabilise the country.
Therefore, Pakistan’s contingency plan should be to build more dams in order to store the excess water that is available during December, said political analyst Hasan Askari.
The completion of under-construction projects such as the Neelum Jhelum Hydropower Project is a must to spare the country from water and electricity shortages, he added.
Pakistan has been criticised for not developing diplomatic foreign relations with its neighbouring countries but the covert war with India has been going on since the two nations parted ways.
Indian military recently claimed it conducted a ‘surgical strike’ across the Line of Control (LoC) to ‘safeguard the nation’.
However, Pakistan military’s media wing ISPR denied India’s claims.
In light of recent events, a befitting and amicable counter policy for Pakistan is to approach the United Nations.
The unanimous agreement between Pakistan and India has survived many ups and downs that surfaced during their relationship, but the two sides need to consider the aftermath of this ongoing conflict.
Considering the current political scenario, India-Pakistan tension is still simmering and shows that both sides are in a constant deadlock over peace talks.
