More praise
Economics is best, they say, when it is quantifiable. Nothing typifies this social science’s soft under belly like the example of the one handed economist – on the one hand there’s this, on the other there’s that. That is why study of micro economics – which measures utility – as well as macro has become increasingly mathematical over the last century or so. Yet economists, even the best, retain the ability of saying a lot without signifying much. IMF’s latest on our economy seems just such economics.
For one thing, sustainable is a very confusing term in economics. The Fund’s chief predicting “sustainable growth” for Pakistan, for example, could well mean sustaining the four-something-percentage we’ve been stagnating at for a while; which the government, with the Fund’s pat on the back, has marketed as something of an achievement, strangely. For another, selling the last IMF program as a step forward amounts to stretching reality a little. All the finance ministry really achieved, every time they met the IMF in Dubai for a stock-take, was to get the donors to agree to downward revision of practically all important indicators. Not too long ago, when the same Fund engaged us in stand-by agreements, it was not so accommodating. Why the sudden understanding and generosity?
Whatever anybody says the economy’s real test will come in ’18 when people head to the polls. Most will remember the prime minister’s promises from the last campaign trail – expanded tax net, value-added exports, handle on power crisis, etc. A few, because of the media, will also understand how the international Brent collapse kept a lid on inflation at home, putting Dar sb in a particularly enviable position. But if they feel their lost has not improved the IMF praise will not help the government.
