Same old, same old
For next general elections, the challenge to Sharif’s throne from opposition is weakening: the overall improved security situation in the country and a reduced power shortage in the run up to next general elections due to various power projects that are being installed as part of the China Pakistan economic Corridor project will directly benefit Sharif.
In the last few months, tensions have aggravated between Nawaz Sharif’s political party, the Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the PTI. About two weeks ago, the National Assembly speaker who belongs to the ruling party, dismissed PTI’s lawmakers corruption related references, which sought the Prime Minister’s resignation. In fact, Ayaz Sadiq, sent a reference to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), requesting that Imran Khan, the chairman of the PTI should be dismissed as the member of NA, for his name had also emerged in the Panama leaks.
Earlier this month, Khan while speaking to a rally in Lahore again demanded Sharif’s resignation for failing to resolve the issue of Panama leaks. Khan stressed that unless the names of Sharif’s children were including in the investigation, the opposition will not accept any resolution on the issue. The government, however, has resisted opposition’s political pressure by successfully withering the initial storm of protests and public agitation that opposition attempted to generate.
Khan’s party, in a latest attempt to resume agitation, has promised to launch another long march towards the private residence of Prime Minister’s family. To Khan’s disappointment, majority of the opposition parties, who previously campaigned for the Sharif family accountability, have refused to support or become part of PTI’s ‘Raiwind march’ campaign.
At this point, all political parties are focused on maximising their vote bank as they head closer to the next pools which are scheduled to take place in 2018. The opposition parties’ decision to not join the Raiwind campaign, particularly the PPP and JI, by and large stems from the possible political fallout that might emerge in result of the march which can prove more costly for opposition rather than Sharif’s party as far as next general elections are concerned.
Even PTI’s provincial coalition partner, JI has refused to become part of Khan latest anti corruption march. Khan’s march, which is scheduled to begin on September 30th, is not likely to win PTI any political support: “the strong waning of public interest for PTI’s protest calls reflects the inevitable that the masses neither approve nor appreciate Khan’s unbridled methods of employing street power to destabilise the government to settle personal scores,” reads an article in a foreign policy magazine.
As I have argued elsewhere that “Khan believes that by continuing the politics of protests and giving voice to the issues of corruption and bad governance, he can still muster the necessary support to win the next general elections. However, Khan’s current unscrupulous and vicious political maneuverings are only going to isolate his party further: his opportunistic political decisions and alliances and willingness to join hands with the military to weaken his political opposition has shredded his credibility and standing which, in a way, has been his most important political asset.”
Arguably, Khan is no longer interested in the resolution of Panama leaks issue, for any agreement will take away strip him from a heated “campaign agenda” in the form of a campaign to counter corruption in the country that he has been working on for quite some time. On the other hand, however, Khan is also aware that Sharif’s will not settle to opposition’s demands of including his family in the investigation. Hence, Khan plans to go full throttle to raise maximum pressure on the government. One of the reasons that Khan is preferring agitation over resolution is because deep down he knows that unless a miracle happens, he is likely to lose next general elections. The miracle that Khan has been looking for resides at the military’s corridors which he wants to invite by creating violence and agitation by marching to Sharif’s home.
“the strong waning of public interest for PTI’s protest calls reflects the inevitable that the masses neither approve nor appreciate Khan’s unbridled methods of employing street power to destabilise the government to settle personal scores,” reads an article in a foreign policy magazine.
Sharif’s ruling party is not likely to react prematurely to Khan’s Raiwind March plans, as it did during Lahore Model Town incident, for it is not interested in giving any space to the latter which he can use to further dent the ruling party’s credibility. For next general elections, the challenge to Sharif’s throne from opposition is weakening: the overall improved security situation in the country and a reduced power shortage in the run up to next general elections due to various power projects that are being installed as part of the China Pakistan economic Corridor project will directly benefit Sharif. Besides PTI, no other political party, including PPP, is in position to mount any serious challenge to PML-N.
The opposition, to safeguard its political constituency, in one form or the other, is likely to continue its onslaught on Sharif’s party. The government, however, will wisely keep the political temperature low, for only that policy option is enough to land Sharif’s party in Islamabad for another five years.
The accountability or justice which the parties in opposition have been talking since the corruption scandal became public does not appear to be the priority anymore. The masses appear to be the immediate fallout of this political chess game whose concerns are likely to remain suspended until they are needed again for another march or protest.