Balochistan now
One reason the foreign office did not react too strongly to PM Modi’s sudden turn to Balochistan was that it likely considered it a very short term measure. Even as the Bengalis and Afghans hopped on to the bandwagon, there was only so far they could push it. And it’s not like nobody could see the timing with a very indigenous uprising, and a very brutal crackdown, in Indian Occupied Kashmir. Another, of course, is that it is has very limited operational jurisdiction at the moment. Everybody but PML-N has realised that not having a full time foreign minister has not helped. Besides, even in the best of times, there’s only so far the FO can go on matters concerning India.
Yet, strangely, Modi has stuck to the Balochistan card. What is more, he has carefully positioned it as his number-one rebuttal in case Islamabad brings up Kashmir at the UN shortly. This, then, is not a short-term position since Nawaz Sharif has already made it pretty clear just what he is going to say at the UN. That should imply that all bets for talks are off; and not just for the moment, but for the duration of the BJP government, at least.
Just in case Modi plans to employ his personal charm offensive again to bring the peace process back to the press at least – like he did in Lahore – he’s likely to find Sharif a little stiffer this time. If this up-and-down is a carefully calibrated strategy – he has done it a number of times – then Modi has already over-extended it. And since the Balochistan novelty found only a snub in Washington, despite the warmth of the Pivot, prudence would dictate a fresh approach. But with the general assembly around the corner, it seems the nuclear neighbours are set to start a brand new phase of confrontation in their long and stale conflict.