And the urgent need for Pakistan to act on Climate Change
The 197 Parties to the United Nations Frame Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are gearing up to collect in Marrakesh, Morocco, between the 7th and 18th November at the 22nd COP to work toward completing the ‘rules of play’ of the Paris Agreement, that will guide the implementation of this agreement once it comes into force. The 22nd COP comes hot on the heels of ground-breaking announcements by the United States and China, major players in the climate stakes, that they intend to ratify the Paris Agreement. However, the Paris Agreement will only come into force once 55 countries that are responsible for at least 55% of global emissions have ratified the agreement. To date, only 27 countries out of 197 have ratified, however, these 27 countries account for 39% of global emissions.
Where does Pakistan fit in? It is an oft repeated fact that Pakistan is one of the lowest emitters in the world, contributing less than 1% of global emissions. It may then have been no surprise to most that Pakistan’s submission to the Nationally Determined Contributions, was a weak 2 page document that showed little commitment to the cause and declined to commit due to a lack of data available. This is despite the fact that an initial INDC draft was floated and reviewed-however, at the last minute, this was shelved and the more or less nonexistent INDC was submitted. A recurring argument in the climate change arena in Pakistan is that mitigation is not Pakistan’s main concern; as a country repeatedly impacted by the adverse effects of climate change, the focus of the country’s government and civil society is on adaptation.
And well it should be. Last year in Paris, the international community agreed to keep temperature “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”. This half degree of temperature has greater consequences than one can imagine for ecosystems, economy and life in the planet in general. However, as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world, Pakistan will continue to feel the impacts of climate change. Studies suggest that this year, temperatures already averaged 1 degree higher than pre industrial levels, and for Pakistan, the impacts have been dire. Following a massive heatwave in 2015 that killed 2000 people in Sindh, footage was released that showed graves being prepared for yet another heatwave in this year. Additionally, flooding has become a recurrent issue for Pakistan, with 43 persons dying due to these floods in 2016 in North Western Pakistan, as well as widespread displacement. Droughts in the Thar desert have become more intense, with thousands of children dying due to malnutrition. Pakistan is approaching the state of becoming one of the most water stressed countries in the world.
The World Bank, in a report in 2013 reiterates that in a 4°C world, South Asian summer temperatures are projected to increase by 3°C to nearly 6°C by 2100, with the warming most pronounced in Pakistan. The report highlights precipitation, glacier melt, sea level rise, heat waves and drought as some of the most pressing issues Pakistan has to face as a result of a 1.5 to 2 degree rise in temperatures above pre industrial levels.
It does make sense for Pakistan to then focus on adaptation rather than on mitigation. However, there are two points that must be considered. The first is that Pakistan must recognise that its economy is growing, and due to various factors such as the investment in the form of the CPEC, emissions are expected to rise. Even if it is a low emitter now, in a few years, this may no longer be the case. Secondly, in order to access funding for adaptation, from the Green Climate Fund, it is necessary that Pakistan demonstrates that it has a clear plan to do so. With COP 22 only 2 months away, it is worrying that only now the conversation surrounding Pakistan’s INDC is picking up speed. There is a very real risk that yet again, a non consequential INDC is submitted, and Pakistan once again misses the boat.
