Political and military
John Kerry’s words, that the expanded strategic and economic relationship with India “couldn’t come at a more important time” underscores the double coincidence of wants that drives this barter. Nothing could suit Washington more in the region than the Pivot to Asia playing out as planned – with the possible exception of the Afghanistan war wrapping up as planned as well. And it works just fine for Delhi that US warmth is coming just when its provocation in the region is becoming unprecedented. Both points must have made strong impressions in the capitals intended – Beijing and Islamabad.
Plans to increase bilateral trade five-fold to the $500-550b mark imply that this is a very long term relationship. If this can indeed be achieved, it will unleash productive forces so strong that India’s forward march will make other regional novelties look miniscule. This is a big achievement even as the plan takes off. The Indians have not just won landmark trade and military concessions from the United States, but also reversed the regional political/diplomatic trend. India is now America’s principal regional political, and increasingly military, ally.
The irony of this embrace, considering that Pak-US ties have been in cold storage for a while, must not be lost on Islamabad. After the F16 snub, etc, even Coalition Support Fund (CSF) payments are being blocked. Since the Fund is a reimbursement facility, the blockage could have serious effects on the ongoing operation. There is a strong need for Pakistan to lobby for a reset in the equation with America. The war on terror was a strain all along, and the endgame has been particularly confrontational. We must revisit areas where we can address US concerns better, while making a stronger case for our problems that sill find a deaf ear in Washington. The alternative is sitting back as India gobbles up the regional pie for itself.