The former US Ambassador Robin Raphel said that chances of a military coup in Pakistan are remote.
The statement was presented while analysimg the current political situation in Pakistan at a recent seminar in Washington.
The chances of a sudden change of government in Pakistan are remote as the military is not prepared to bring down the civilian set-up, she added.
The speakers highlighted different weaknesses and strengths in the current political set-up and its relations with the country’s powerful military establishment.
The participants of the meeting agreed that the military would retain its ‘dominating influence’ over the civilian set-up but would not bring it down.
“The military does not want snap elections,” said Raphel, a respected Pakistan sympathiser in Washington who recently faced an FBI investigation for her alleged friendly relations with Pakistani diplomats. In June, she was cleared of charges and allowed to resume her work as an expert on South Asian affairs.
Raphel thinks that if elections are held now, “likely beneficiary will be Imran Khan” but the elections will take place as scheduled, in 2018.
She and other speakers argued that the military was reluctant to trust Imran Khan because of his “loose cannon” image, which might or might not be true.
While ruling out the possibility of a military takeover, Ms Raphel warned that the “military may move in if there is a major public disorder in the country”.
The chances of a takeover, however, were remote, she added. “Like the military, the public too has changed and may resist any abrupt move.”
But she underlined “some erosion in public support for democracy”, which she said was worrying and might lead to a situation where the people might be forced to welcome an abrupt change, as they did in 1999.
“If it happens, the United States will weigh its options and will take a decision that is compatible with US interests in the region,” she said.
